Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Hilltoppers Top the Total

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks had strung together three straight wins to reach 5-1 in their debut season at the FBS level. Life seemed swell, even if they had been beaten snap-by-snap in their first two Conference USA victories. Then, life came crashing down. First, Middle Tennessee State exploited the Gamecocks’ defensive backfield, and then Liberty outright abused it to turn a 10-10 halftime lead into a 31-13 rout.

Enter the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and their explosive passing game. That could be enough against Jacksonville State as college football odds favorites of more than a touchdown.

Let’s dig into tonight's mismatch in our free college football picks and predictions for Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State on October 17, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET.

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State best odds

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State picks and predictions

Jacksonville State began its FBS life valiantly enough. Beating UTEP in August was the definition of an ugly game, but it was a win. A month later, the Gamecocks put together a three-game winning streak, including two straight against conference opponents. They were 3-0 in Conference USA.

But the transition to the FBS was always going to catch up to Jacksonville State. The depth concerns in the jump, even the jump to the worst conference at the FBS level, were looming over the Gamecocks all year long, the on-field cost of building out a roster that was capped at 63 scholarships for the last three decades.

They seem to be most showing up in the secondary. Fifth-year Maine transfer safety Austin Ambush was sidelined last week against Liberty, and the Flames proceeded to notch explosive plays on 17% of their passes. If Kaidon Salter was dropping back to pass, it was a good thing for Liberty.

Two weeks ago, Middle Tennessee State enjoyed similar successes, gashing the Gamecocks for seven explosive passing plays, 14% of its dropbacks. Most notably, Elijah Metcalf ended that night with four catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns, highlighted by a 71-yard score in the second quarter to give the Blue Raiders a 17-7 lead.

Jacksonville State’s pass defense concerns can trace back three weeks to even against Sam Houston State — and let’s be clear here, the BearKats have one of the least explosive offenses in the country. Yet, they sprung explosive plays on 13% of their dropbacks. Across the last three weeks — 112 pass attempts starting to feel like a reasonable sample size — the Gamecocks have given up explosive plays on 14.3% of opposing dropbacks.

In Western Kentucky’s last two games, 9.6% of its dropbacks have yielded explosive plays. One of those was also against MTSU, an atrocious pass defense, but the better aerial showing was actually against Louisiana Tech, one of the better Group of Five pass defenses. The fact that the Hilltoppers hit big plays (four on 33 dropbacks, 12%) against the Bulldogs should stand out as a worrisome precursor for Jacksonville State.

No defense can survive that rate of explosive pass plays allowed, particularly not with Austin Reed coming to town. The veteran Hilltoppers quarterback has thrown 14 touchdowns and only three interceptions this season while attempting an absurd 41 passes per game. Pass attempts per game is not often a stat to cite in a handicap, but it makes it clear how Western Kentucky will proceed tonight. Reed has thrown at least 34 passes in every FBS game this season, and if he matches just that number tonight, it is safe to assume he will connect on at least five explosive plays. With that kind of head start, the Hilltoppers should have no trouble reaching their team total tonight.

My best bet: Western Kentucky team total Over 34.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State same-game parlay

Western Kentucky TT Over 34.5 points
Over 59.5 points
Austin Reed Over 2.5 passing TDs

+222 at FanDuel

Before delving further into Jacksonville State’s struggling pass defense and Western Kentucky’s eagerness to exploit it, let’s quickly acknowledge the Hilltoppers will be without linebacker JaQues Evans. As of Thursday, head coach Tyson Helton expected the left leg injury two weeks ago — Western Kentucky is coming off an idle week — to keep Evans out for at least tonight.

An All-Conference USA first-teamer in 2022, Evans may be the Hilltoppers’ best defender, making 106 tackles last year with nine sacks. He had racked up 30 tackles in five-plus games this season, gaining steam in Conference USA play.

An injury to a linebacker will not often impact a spread, but Evans’s absence could allow one more Jacksonville State score than expected, something Western Kentucky would then likely match, hence not impacting the spread. But that additional score or two should send this weeknight matchup well Over its total.

As for Reed, well, if the loss of Evans creates a few missed assignments and an extra Gamecocks score, that will only further the chances of Reed throwing into the end zone at least three times. He did so last week against Louisiana Tech, and the Bulldogs rank No. 33 in passer rating against, compared to Jacksonville State at No. 51, a ranking buoyed by both UTEP and Eastern Michigan.

Reed will drop back around 40 times tonight. He may score on 10% of them.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State spread and Over/Under analysis

Circa Sports opened this spread at 9 points on Sunday afternoon, in favor of Western Kentucky, a number that was quickly bet down to -7. Then as Monday turned to Tuesday, it ticked back up to -7.5 and some books offered -8.

Both teams have excelled against the spread this season, the Hilltoppers at 4-2 and the Gamecocks at 4-2-1. Those trends can be twisted quickly to one’s preference: For example, Western Kentucky is 4-0 ATS against Group of Five teams this year, while Jacksonville State is 2-2-1 since opening the season against a scuffling UTEP team and an FCS opponent.

The total opened at 59.5 and hung there until some books offered 60 on Monday. The injured defenders noted above should give reason to consider the Over, even if Jacksonville State has hit the Under in five of its seven games this year. Again, skew the trends as you see fit: The Gamecocks have cashed the Over in two of their last three games, that stretch outscoring bookmakers’ expectation by 11.2 points, an average that includes the Under.

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State betting trend to know

Western Kentucky has hit the team total Over in four of its last five games. Find more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State.

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State game info

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State latest injuries

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