The USC Trojans are coming off an excruciating loss in front of a national audience, one that could set up many to overreact in doubt about the Trojans’ defensive improvement. However, a date with the Wisconsin Badgers in Week 5 should be a salve for all such worries.
My Wisconsin vs. USC predictions want to doubt the Badgers’ offense as much as they trust the Trojans’ defense. It's a new world, as my college football picks are betting on a Lincoln Riley defense before kickoff at 3:30 ET on Saturday, September 28.
Wisconsin vs USC prediction
My best bet
USC moneyline + Under 51.5 (+105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
While BetMGM does not offer team totals as standalone bets, they can be largely mimicked with these win/total combination bets. In this instance, the intention is to parallel a bet on the Wisconsin team total Under 16.5 or 17.5, depending on your other sportsbook options.
After quarterback Tyler Van Dyke tore his ACL against Alabama two weeks ago, the Badgers need to turn to Braedyn Locke behind center for a second season in a row. The former four-star recruit and Mississippi State transfer has twice been beaten out by other transfers in Madison, only to step in for both Tanner Mordecai last season and now Van Dyke.
Locke has averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt in his six appearances, a number that looks even worse thanks to Mordecai averaging 6.6 yards per attempt last season and Van Dyke at 6.2 yards per attempt this year. An offense already struggling loses some downfield push with Locke behind center.
The only piece of old-fashioned Wisconsin football applicable to the 2024 Badgers is their insistence on running often for little gain. Wisconsin rushes the ball 6.2% more often than the average team does in a given game state, just outside the Top 30 most often in the country, and the Badgers stay ahead of the chains on 51.7% of those rush attempts, ranking No. 4 in the country per cfb-graphs.
But they never break loose. To be No. 4 in success rate but No. 96 in expected points added (EPA) per rush is a baffling split. To put that into plain terms, the Badgers gain three and four yards often but nearly never anything more.
USC lost last week because of three explosive Michigan rushes. Wisconsin does not produce those, so adverse to them one might wonder if it is a matter of intention. Without the threat of an explosive rush, the Trojans' defense should be trusted.
If granting all that, the question then becomes, how likely is USC to score more than 35 points? As good as quarterback Miller Moss has looked, the Trojans would need multiple explosive plays to do so.
Alabama hung 42 on Wisconsin two weeks ago via four explosive touchdown plays and two short-field touchdowns. USC should enjoy some of that fortune, but not to that same extent.
Wisconsin vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
Wisconsin team total Under 17.5
Under 51.5
Zachariah Branch anytime touchdown
None of this same-game parlay should surprise. The Wisconsin team total Under has been discussed at length, and sliding it in with the game total Under 51.5 is a bet against USC exploding for more than 35 points.
Adding a Zachariah Branch anytime touchdown into that mix quickly escalates the payout. Branch has somehow not yet scored this season, and that explains the rise in SGP value. There is also the counterintuitive aspect of Branch scoring that raises the chances of the game going Over its total.
Branch is a likely touchdown this weekend simply because Wisconsin is vulnerable to explosive scores, and no one in the country is more eruptive than Branch.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Wisconsin vs USC odds
Wisconsin vs USC live odds
Wisconsin vs USC opening odds
- Wisconsin vs. USC spread: USC -14
- Wisconsin vs. USC moneyline: Wisconsin +450, USC -650
- Wisconsin vs. USC Over/Under: 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Wisconsin vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis
- USC began the summer as a 4.5-point favorite, a number that climbed to -5.5 in June and hung there until this game came off the market. However, Wisconsin’s struggles early this season ballooned this number to -14 when it reopened on Sunday.
- This climbed to -14.5 on Monday morning and then to -15.5 by the end of the day, holding there all week.
- This total opened at 48.5 on Sunday and jumped to 50.5 within hours, toggling between 50.5 and 51.5 all week.
Wisconsin vs USC betting trend to know
The Badgers are 0-3 against the spread this season, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 10.8 points per game. Find more college football betting trends for Wisconsin vs USC.
Wisconsin vs USC game info
| Location: | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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