The trade that everyone in the football universe knew was coming finally got done on Monday afternoon, as Aaron Rodgers was sent from the Green Bay Packers to the New York Jets for a bundle of draft picks.
Now that the dust has settled and Super Bowl odds have been adjusted, it's time to look ahead and figure out just how Rodgers might do in his new home. Will A-Rod take flight with the Jets and snap what's currently the NFL's longest playoff drought? Could he possibly take this moribund franchise to the promised land for the first time since Super Bowl III? Or will Rodgers simply add to the long list of quarterback failures in New York?
Let's dig through his NFL player prop future wagers and predict how Rodgers will fare in the Big Apple.
Aaron Rodgers passing yards
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 4,050.5 | -105 |
| Under 4,050.5 | -115 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 25, 2023.
Aaron Rodgers may be only one season removed from winning his second consecutive NFL MVP Award (the fourth of his career), but as the old saying goes, "Father Time is undefeated."
Rodgers — who will turn 40 in December — looked like a shell of himself in 2022-23, throwing for only 3,695 yards. That was his lowest output in any full season of an NFL career that dates back to 2005. And thanks to the recently-lengthened regular season, Rodgers played in 17 games last year. That means he also set what was by far a career-low in passing yards per game at 217.4. His next-lowest output in a full season was 238.8 passing yards per game back in 2015.
Another concern when it comes to Rodgers props is health. He's suffered two major injuries to his collarbone over his 18-year career; one in 2013 that cost him seven games, and another in 2017 that sidelined him for nine games. Both injuries required recovery time extending beyond the regular season.
Of the 13 seasons in which Rodgers suited up for at least 15 games, he eclipsed 4,050 passing yards eight times. But even in his last two MVP years, Rodgers averaged only 4,207 passing yards (263 passing yards per game), so he didn't exactly blow this number out of the water.
The data from the 2022-23 season suggests that Rodgers will have a hard time getting Over this ambitious line.
Pick: Under 4,050.5 passing yards (-115)
Aaron Rodgers passing touchdowns
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 30.5 | -110 |
| Under 30.5 | -110 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 25, 2023.
This is another line that looks far too tall for the aging Rodgers.
After amassing 48 passing touchdowns in 2020-21 and 37 in 2021-22, Rodgers crashed back down to Earth and tossed only 26 scores last year. Since taking the reins full-time in Green Bay in 2008, Rodgers tossed at least 31 touchdowns in only seven seasons, including the two in which he didn't play a full year.
While Rodgers will be joined by wide-out Allen Lazard in New York, it's not as though the two had a connection akin to Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison in Indianapolis, as the pair linked up for all of six touchdowns last year. Second-year receiver Garrett Wilson offers the most hope out wide after catching four TD passes in his rookie campaign while languishing through mostly subpar quarterback play.
Beyond these two is Mecole Hardman, who caught a relatively modest 16 touchdowns over 57 games with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. Then there's Corey Davis, who has only 17 career touchdowns over 78 games, and Denzel Mims, who is still waiting for his first touchdown grab after 30 career games.
Pick: Under 30.5 touchdown passes (-115)
Aaron Rodgers interceptions thrown
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -110 |
| Under 9.5 | -130 |
Odds as of April 25, 2023.
The outlook for Rodgers has been negative so far, but the line on his interceptions thrown this year actually looks a bit too pessimistic.
Rodgers has specialized in accuracy over his illustrious career, completing 65.3% of his throws all-time. He's also done a remarkable job at limiting interceptions, tossing 105 over 18 seasons, or 1.4% of his 7,660 attempts.
While Rodgers threw an alarming 12 picks last year, that was the first time he reached double-digit interceptions since 2010, and only the third time he'd ever done so. Injury luck, or lack thereof, could also pay off for Under bettors on this prop wager.
Pick: Under 9.5 interceptions (-130)
