In the season’s first Sunday Night Football showdown, the Los Angeles Rams get a chance at revenge against Matthew Stafford’s former team after the Detroit Lions beat them in the playoffs last year.
The key to another Lions victory will be Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had seven receptions for 110 yards in the playoff win last year. He’s a constant threat that both defenses and bettors should target.
Our Amon-Ra St. Brown player props expect another big game from the Lions’ star as part of our NFL picks.
Amon-Ra St. Brown SNF player prop picks
- Over 83.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Over 83.5 receiving yards/anytime TD scorer/Under 7.5 receptions (+800)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Amon-Ra St. Brown SNF prop pick
My best bet
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 83.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s coming off a career year in which he averaged 94.7 receiving yards per game on 10.2 targets per game for the Detroit Lions. So, you best believe he’ll be a focal point of Ben Johnson’s offense once again.
The Los Angeles Rams will also struggle to slow him down after ranking in the bottom half of the league in most passing categories on defense last season. They were 18th in EPA per dropback and allowed the 13th-most passing yards per game (229.3).
They likely won’t be much better in the backend this season, either. While the Rams did sign Tre’Davious White, John Johnson, and Kamren Curl, two of those players are past their prime.
They’re also expected to start former sixth-round pick Quentin Lake at nickel — St. Brown played 55.3% of his snaps in the slot last year.
Those four, along with Cobie Durant, aren’t up to the task of covering St. Brown. He was fourth in the league in yards per route run last season (2.24) and eighth in yards after catch per reception (5.2).
Not to mention, he led the league in contested catches (9) and had the fewest drops of any player with 50+ targets last season (1). He clearly has Jared Goff’s trust, and will be fed against this Rams defense.
If Durant — who’s expected to be the Rams’ top corner this season — takes the bulk of the snaps against St. Brown, L.A. will be in trouble. He allowed a 101.1 QB rating when targeted last season.
And in the slot, Lake won’t be all that much better. In the playoffs against the Lions last year, he was targeted six times and gave up 67 yards.
St. Brown is poised to cross 83.5 receiving yards for the 14th time in his last 19 games.
Amon-Ra St. Brown SNF same-game parlay
Over 83.5 receiving yards
Anytime TD scorer
Under 7.5 receptions
St. Brown scored in 10 of his 16 regular season games last year, and should find paydirt in the opener.
L.A. allowed 24 passing touchdowns last season, 11th-most in the NFL, and St. Brown is obviously Goff’s favorite red-zone target— he caught a third of Goff’s touchdown passes last season.
And despite the Rams’ effort to rebuild their struggling secondary, it’s not built to slow down a superstar like St. Brown.
While White was once a Pro Bowl cornerback, injuries and age have zapped him. Last season, he gave up two touchdowns in his first two starts before injuries once again ended his season.
If it’s not White seeing St. Brown the most, it will be Durant or Lake, both of whom weren’t even full-time starters last year. The fact that Aaron Donald is gone and the Rams pass rush will heavily rely on rookies should only help Goff and St. Brown cook.
But even though St. Brown is set to rack up the yards, crossing 7.5 receptions is a loftier goal. In 19 games (including playoffs last season), he caught fewer than eight passes 11 times.
In those 11 games, he still went Over 83.5 receiving yards six times. A couple big plays against the Rams makeshift secondary will have St. Brown hit the Over on receiving yards without needing to hit it on receptions.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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