The Chicago Bears will visit the Detroit Lions for the first of three games on Thursday as part of the NFL’s Thanksgiving tripleheader.
My Bears vs. Lions props will be targeting three different players for this NFC North showdown, including backing veteran running back David Montgomery to reach paydirt.
Let's get into my latest NFL picks for Bears vs. Lions on November 28.
Bears vs Lions props
Montgomery anytime TD (-175 at FanDuel)- Gibbs o71.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Williams u227.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Bears vs Lions props
Prop bet #1: David Montgomery anytime touchdown
The Detroit Lions have been outstanding on offense this year. Jared Goff is enjoying a career resurgence while running back Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. However, nobody has scored more for Detroit than David Montgomery, who leads the way with 11 touchdowns on the ground this season.
Montgomery isn’t nearly as explosive as Gibbs, but he still gets nearly as many carries as his backfield running mate. He has also been given the ball more regularly in short-yardage situations, where his physicality and ability to break tackles allows him to pick up important first downs — and, of course, touchdowns near the goal line.
Montgomery has scored touchdowns in each of his last three games and nine of the Lions’ 11 games overall this season. Yet, oddsmakers are still offering a surprisingly reasonable -175 on him to find the endzone against the Chicago Bears.
It’s not as though the Bears have done a particularly impressive job of stopping the run, as they allow a poor 4.8 yards per carry. Expect the Lions to find themselves near the goal line on a few occasions on Thanksgiving, which should guarantee that Montgomery gets into the endzone at least once.
Prop bet #2: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 71.5 rushing yards
While Montgomery is the power back, Jahmyr Gibbs is where the Lions go when they want to break open big plays on the ground. Gibbs ranks fourth in the NFL with 886 rushing yards, and — including his one touchdown reception — is tied for the team lead with Montgomery at 11 touchdowns.
Gibbs has gone for 70+ yards in four of his last six games and hasn’t finished with fewer than 63 yards since Week 1. Just last week against Indianapolis, we saw the Lions give Gibbs the ball 21 times.
If he gets anywhere near that much usage on Thanksgiving, it’s hard to imagine that the Bears will keep Gibbs below his rushing yardage total, which has been set at 71.5 yards. Chicago allows 129.7 yards per game on the ground, and Detroit loves running the ball, so it will take full advantage of its advantage in the trenches.
Barring a stunning effort from the Bears that forces Detroit into throwing the ball from behind, the Over is the play on Gibbs.
Prop bet #3: Caleb Williams Under 227.5 passing yards
Tossed into a poor offense as a rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams’ struggles in Chicago aren’t surprising. As bettors, though, we don’t have to feel bad about taking advantage of the lack of production from the former USC standout.
Williams has been at the helm for five straight losses. During that run, he’s been averaging just 207.8 yards per game, and while he’s avoided tossing a single interception, he’s also only thrown for two touchdowns in that stretch.
Things won’t be getting any easier against the Lions. Detroit has been one of the toughest defenses for quarterbacks to face in the NFL, as it is allowing the lowest QB rating (70.9) in the league and holding opponents to just a 61.6% completion percentage – a number that bodes poorly for Williams, who is already only completing 62.6% of his throws.
Williams may be called on to throw the ball a lot if Detroit — a 9.5-point favorite — jumps out to a large lead in the second half. However, it’s unlikely he’ll find enough success to put up big enough numbers to hit his prop.
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