NFL Week 17 features an NFC North battle between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions.
Although the Lions are coming off an ugly loss, they could still make the playoffs for the first time since 2016. They won't get an easier stepping stone than the Bears, who haven't won a game since before Halloween.
NFL odds hit the board with Detroit installed as a 6.5-point home favorite for this rivalry showdown. Here are my best free Bears vs. Lions NFL picks and predictions for January 1.
Bears vs Lions best odds
Bears vs Lions picks and predictions
Just when you thought Detroit's run defense had turned the corner, they were gashed for 320 yards on the ground by Carolina in Week 16. Detroit is back to sitting 29th in the NFL defensive rush EPA and should be the perfect opponent for Chicago quarterback Justin Fields to shred.
Fields was limited to just 11 rushing yards on seven carries against Buffalo's stingy stop unit last week but that snapped a streak of five straight games where he had rushed for more than 70 yards.
The Over/Under on Fields' rushing yards opened at 70.5, a number he has eclipsed in seven of his last nine games — including Week 10 against the Lions when he had 147 yards on 13 carries.
With Fields averaging 90.1 rushing yards per game over that span, take the Over on his rushing total before that number creeps up any further.
My best bet: Justin Fields Over 71.5 rushing yards (-115)
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Bears vs Lions spread analysis
The Bears have lost eight games in a row and have gone 2-6 against the spread during that span. They are fresh off a 35-13 home loss to the Bills where they were outgained 426-209. Simply put, it's been a brutal season on both sides of the ball.
Thanks to scripted runs from Fields and his ability to escape pressure, Chicago is 12th in the NFL in Rush DVOA according to Football Outsiders. However, they rank just 27th in Pass DVOA due to several factors, including Fields' inconsistent arm, a lack of quality receiving targets, and the worst pass protection in the league.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears are dead-last in the league in DVOA defense and they've been atrocious through the air and on the ground.
The Lions went into Carolina last week looking like Mufasa and left like they had been trampled by a wildebeest stampede. Detroit allowed the Panthers to rush for 240 yards in the first half and trailed 31-7 by the midway point of the third quarter.
By the end of the game, they had surrendered 570 total yards to one of the worst offensive teams in the league and didn't manage a single sack or takeaway.
That was a rough way for the Lions to end a three-game winning streak but they're still 6-2 straight up (7-1 ATS) in their last eight games. If they win out and get a bit of luck, a ticket to the postseason is possible.
Detroit's defense has been its biggest liability with the Lions 28th in the league in DVOA pass defense and 26th in DVOA rush defense. They've been much more efficient on the other side of the ball where they rank sixth in DVOA offense.
Jared Goff has done a solid job in his second year in Detroit and has completed 64.5% of his passes for 3,959 yards and the seventh-best QBR (61.8) in the league. Their rushing attack has taken a step back during the second half of the season and ranks just 26th in rush EPA over the last eight weeks after ranking 13th through Week 8.
Bears vs Lions Over/Under analysis
When these teams clashed earlier this season, the Lions won 31-30 in Chicago on November 13.
It was a clinical performance from Detroit's offense, which had a modest 323 yards but didn't have a single turnover and went 3-for-5 in the red zone. That's been an area of success for Detroit all season with the Lions ranking third in red zone TD percentage (68.4%) and the Bears happen to be 28th in red zone defense (64.7%).
If the Lions can get into Bears territory they should be able to capitalize and given how bad Chicago's defense has been this year, moving the ball shouldn't be hard. The Bears have allowed at least 25 points in eight consecutive games and are surrendering a whopping 32.6 ppg during that span.
The Lions' stop unit did put together a couple of solid performances over the last month but that doesn't overshadow a disastrous season where they've given up a league-worst 6.3 yards per play.
While they might not have to worry about Chicago's pathetic passing attack, the Bears lead the league with 179.7 rushing yards per game and, as we saw last week (and numerous times this year), even a one-dimensional offense can put up points on Detroit.
Bears vs Lions betting trend to know
The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games versus NFC North foes while the Bears are 1-8 ATS in their previous nine contests against division opponents. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Lions.
Bears vs Lions game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, January 1, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Lions -5.5, 51.5 O/U |
Bears vs Lions latest injuries
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