NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 5: LaPorta Plays Leading Role in Lions Offense

Last week, I was singing the tales of woe about how desolate the running back market was for betting NFL player props.

Fast forward a week, and the Week 5 odds appear bountiful for betting on running backs, with a couple of RBs seemingly in line for more touches... against terrible run defenses.

So my favorite NFL picks for Week 5's Sunday slate, I'm betting on the NFL odds for three running backs, plus a couple of pass catchers... and then also a quarterback that you've probably heard of. 

Latest NFL prop picks

• LaPorta o52.5 rec yards
• Robinson o3.5 receptions
• Brown o74.5 rec yards

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Last lion roaring

Full disclosure: Sam LaPorta's odds opened at 43.5 receiving yards and has jumped allllll the way up to 55.5 at some spots — but the reason why it jumped is exactly why I'm betting on the Detroit Lions tight end.

The Lions injury report came out Friday, and it featured star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown listed as doubtful (after not practicing all week), No. 2 WR Josh Reynolds as questionable (as he continues to battle a groin injury), plus Jameson Williams is on a snap count in his first game of the season and pass-catching RB Jahmyr Gibbs is questionable after a hamstring injury led him to get one limited practice in all week.

So, who exactly is going to catch the ball? Well, there's WR Kalif Raymond and then LaPorta, who already has emerged as one of QB Jared Goff's favorite targets and one of the elite pass-catching TEs in the league.

LaPorta is averaging 5.5 catches and 60.5 yards through his first four career NFL games, sits second on the team in targets behind St. Brown and, as The Athletic highlighted earlier this week, he is second among all tight ends in team target percentage and yards per route run.

That also includes two consecutive games where the game script  — the Lions nursing big leads — led to him getting just four targets and 14 yards in the second half two weeks ago against Atlanta and nary a single target last week against the Packers... and still racking up 140 receiving yards.

Detroit could again have a big league this week, with the sad Carolina Panthers coming to town, but with St. Brown, Reynolds, and Gibbs possibly out (or playing severely limited snaps), that is 56.7% of Goff's targets that someone else will need to get, so it only makes sense that LaPorta could be in store for a busy day... for all four quarters.

It also helps that Goff has been significantly better playing at home than on the road during his Detroit tenure, so despite the increase in his receiving total, it's still a line that he's topped in three straight weeks — and the opportunity for looks that LaPorta should get is too good to pass up.

FanDuel is also still offering a 52.5, so jump on this ASAP as you're getting a few yards of buffer on this prop.

Prop: Sam LaPorta Over 52.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Spicy Bijan

The Atlanta Falcons offense is ugly, as QB Desmond Ridder struggles to throw downfield, cannot consistently involve Drake London, and seemingly forgot that Kyle Pitts exists.

The one thing he (or at least head coach Arthur Smith) does do well, however, is get the ball into the hands of star RB Bijan Robinson. The electric rookie has lived up to the hype of being a Top-10 pick, sitting third in the league in rushing yards, but the Bijan Robinson odds I'm targeting this week is the Over on his receptions total, with currently sits at 3.5.

Robinson also leads all RBs — and all Falcons players — with 19 receptions, and it's easy to see why Ridder wants to get him the ball as much as possible because he can do things like this:

London's introduction to Bijan Robinson.#ATLvsJAX on ESPN+
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Jq9JHUeqb6 pic.twitter.com/0ESc1HSGpc

— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2023

Not everyone can deliver jukes that still look nasty while animated, but that's what we have in Robinson and there's no reason to expect him not to continue to see another healthy dose of footballs this Sunday against the Houston Texans.

First, he spends almost one-third of his snaps lined up somewhere that isn't the backfield, as Smith is frequently deploying him like an actual receiver, and considering Ridder does not excel at (or really like to throw) downfield, there should be plenty of check-downs coming to No. 7.

He's logged 4+ catches in each of his first four games this season, the Texans have allowed 4.75 receptions per game to RBs, and consensus projections put Robinson at around 3.91 catches.

There's juice attached to this play, but with some operators sitting as short as -174 on the Over 3.5, I'm quite happy to grab this at -150.

Prop: Bijan Robinson Over 3.5 receptions (-150 at bet365)

Not now chief, I'm ripping apart the zone

Sometimes, it really is just as easy as "ask and you shall receive."

Philadelphia Eagles star receiver A.J. Brown was animated in Week 2, appearing to QB Jalen Hurts to give him the ball more as he finished with four catches on six targets for 29 yards.

Well, Hurts heard him and then some, feeding him a whopping 26 targets (38.8% target share) over the last two games — which he's turned into 18 catches and 306 yards.

And this week he's got a receiving yards total of 74.5 yards and a strong matchup against the Los Angeles Rams... yeah, we're taking the Over on A.J. Brown odds again this week.

The Rams play zone 79% of the time (11th-highest rate in the league), but rank 31st in Pro Football Focus' zone coverage grades. Combined with the fact that Brown has a 26.3% target rate — and 19 catches for 304 yards — against zone this season, everything seems to be lining up for him to have another monster day.

Consensus projections have him at 85.8 yards, with some projecting him as high as 95 yards, giving more confidence to this play, and then this final little cherry on top: These are two of the fastest-paced teams in the NFL, with the Rams leading all teams with 71.5 plays per game, while the Eagles aren't far behind at more than 70 per contest (fourth), meaning there should be plenty of chances for Brown to rack up yards.

If you feel like getting a little frisky, I'd also look at sprinkling on his alternate total of 100+ yards (+230) and even a half-unit on 125+ yards (+550). 

Prop: A.J. Brown Over 74.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetRivers)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Viking quest

Under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football last week, a Kansas City Chiefs megastar had an unexpectedly rough outing. But don't worry Taylor Swift Patrick Mahomes, things should get much, much better this week against the Minnesota Vikings.

Despite escaping with a win, Mahomes completed just 18 of 30 passes for 203 yards and two interceptions (that can only be described as "YOLO throws") while under relentless pressure from the New York Jets. Thankfully for Mahomes — and this bet — the Jets are one of the better defenses in the league and are ninth in QB pressure percentage.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are just 29th in pressure rate and not a good defense overall.

First, let's throw last week's game out the window, as Bryce Young and Carolina are amongst the league's worst offenses. In Week 3 vs. the Chargers (a capable passing attack), Justin Herbert threw for 445 yards. In Week 2, Jalen Hurts threw for 193 yards despite attempting just three fourth-quarter passes, while Baker Mayfield went for 163 yards in the final 33 minutes after a heinous opening half in the season opener.

Essentially, if you have any semblance of a passing rhythm — and a reason to pass — you can rip this defense apart. None of the KC receivers have established themselves as the lead non-Travis Kelce pass catcher, but together they're a Voltron-like stable of capable WRs that will give Mahomes a juicy mismatch on every play.

Consensus industry projections have Mahomes around 299 yards, and considering this has shootout potential with the Vikings being a pass-heavy squad, I'll bet the Over on Patrick Mahomes' odds to top his line of 282.5 yards.

Prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 282.5 passing yards (-115 at BetRivers)

All aboard the Gus bus

The Baltimore Ravens, regardless of who is standing in the backfield, always base their identity off the run game — and with a matchup against the shoddy Pittsburgh Steelers run defense, this week it's Gus Edwards odds I'm betting.

His current rushing yards total is 43.5, which has me salivating towards the Over: He's topped it in three straight games (53.7 per-game average) and went Over this number in each of his six games last year when he received 7+ carries (76.9 per game) — and there's no reason to believe he won't again get the lion's share of carries on Sunday.

Justice Hill, who had three carries last Sunday after missing Week 3 with a foot injury, is back on the injury report. After him, there's undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell, who might play after returning to practice after being on the IR to start the year, leaving the husk of Melvin Gordon III (who is technically just on the practice squad) as the only real healthy RB that could challenge Edwards for targets.

After dropping the ball (literally and figuratively) against Indy last week, the Ravens will want to put their best foot forward (I'm so sorry for these puns) — and that means the Steelers will get a heavy ride on the Gus Bus.

The Steelers have allowed 4.7 yards per carry and 148.5 rushing yards per game (both fourth-worst in the NFL) and with a hobbled Kenny Pickett leading what is statistically one of the NFL's saddest offenses, the Ravens could be in a particularly run-heavy script in the second half.

Baltimore ran for 335 yards in the two matchups last year and with industry consensus projecting Edwards for around 55.5 yards, I'm quite confident that he'll soar past this number in a positive game script.

Prop: Gus Edwards Over 43.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM)

Breece breaks away

New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh said something this week that is music to the ears of Breece Hall fans: He will not be on a pitch count this week.

Why is this big news? Well, the Jets have been conservative in easing Hall back in his return from last season's ACL injury, giving a lot of his potential touches to Dalvin Cook, who, well, just look at this:

35 RBs have at least 30 carries this season.

Most yards per carry:
Breece Hall (6.5)

Least yards per carry:
Dalvin Cook (2.5)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 3, 2023

If you need a translation: Hall is very, very, good... and Cook stinks. I like the Over on Hall's total rushing yards, but as we don't know exactly how many carries he will get (and consensus projections are actually below his current line), the Breece Hall odds I'm more excited for is his longest rush to be Over 15.5 yards.

Hall already has three runs of 20+ yards (third among RBs) and four runs of 10+ yards in just 32 carries, while also sitting third in average yards after contact (6.93), per Pro Football Focus.

Plus: We haven't even mentioned that he's facing the embarrassment that is the Denver Broncos defense, which gives up the most rushing yards per game (176.0), the second-most yards per carry (5.6), and (per The Athletic) have the highest percentage of explosive runs allowed (9.5).

Denver has given up 11 runs of 15+ yards to RBs over its last three games, and I love Hall — one of the biggest home run threats in the league — to break off another big run this Sunday.

Prop: Breece Hall longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-130 at DraftKings)

NFL Week 5 prop betting card

• Sam LaPorta Over 52.5 receiving yards (-114)
• Bijan Robinson Over 3.5 receptions (-150)
• A.J. Brown Over 74.5 receiving yards (-115)

     - - 

• Patrick Mahomes Over 282.5 passing yards (-115)
• Gus Edwards Over 43.5 rushing yards (-120)
• Breece Hall longest rush Over 13.5 yards (-130)

Season to date: 13-10, +2.02 units

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