Week 4 saw another positive outcome, and while it wasn't exactly a flashy home run of a week, we're still moving the chains.
As long as there's forward progress, no matter how incremental, I won't complain — and I'm adopting that strategy to kick off my best Week 5 player props.
I've got one prop for TNF — a quarterback rushing prop — that isn't exactly bringing the house down... but maybe I'll try to go downfield when I release the rest of my NFL picks for this Sunday...
Latest NFL prop picks
Mayfield o9.5 rush yards
(-113 at FanDuel)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 5
Baker Mayfield Over 9.5 rush yards
Baker Mayfield ain't exactly a burner, but he's never been afraid to tuck it and run — and I love his chances to go Over a modest rushing total tonight against the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta has allowed the most rushing yards to QBs this season (41 per game) and the most QB runs (36). Those numbers are a little inflated by facing dual-threat QBs in Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts, Mayfield has run it at least three times in three of his first four games, topping this total in each contest.
His one exception was against the pressure-heavy Denver Broncos, but the Falcons aren't big on pressuring the QB, entering Week 5 with the seventh-lowest QB pressure rate and the ninth-lowest blitz rate.
Industry projections put Mayfield at about 13 rushing yards for this game, and with almost every book sitting at 10.5, I'll happily take an extra yard with FanDuel still offering this at 9.5.
Pick made on 10-3
NFL Week 5 prop betting card
- Baker Mayfield Over 9.5 rush yards (-113)
Last week: 3-2, +0.52 units
Season: 9-11, -2.46 units
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
