It doesn’t get much better than Championship Game Sunday for NFL fans, and this season’s final four feels even more compelling.
All of these teams have flaws that could come back to bite them with a trip to Super Bowl 59 on the line, so I’m taking a closer look at those weaknesses here and highlighting a connected prop to target in my NFL picks.
The biggest weaknesses of every remaining NFL playoff team — and who will exploit them
Washington Commanders
Biggest weakness: Run defense
The Washington Commanders gave up 137.5 rushing yards per game in the regular season — the third-worst mark in the league — and they survived the Divisional Round despite allowing 201 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
That makes the Philadelphia Eagles a nightmare matchup. The Eagles ran for more than 200 yards in both regular season meetings with the Commanders and, while I expect Washington to have a better game plan on Sunday, it’s hard to believe that discipline will last four quarters, particularly with Saquon Barkley involved early and often.
The Eagles running back has been on a tear over the past four weeks, boasting a rush of at least 25 yards in five of his last nine contests. With the Philadelphia offensive line so skilled at creating running lanes, I like the Over on 24.5 yards for Barkley’s longest rush this weekend.
Prop to target: Saquon Barkley longest rush Over 24.5 yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Philadelphia Eagles
Biggest weakness: Jalen Hurts' knee
This week's big storyline in Philly has been daily updates on Jalen Hurts’ knee injury. It’s still unclear how limited Hurts will be on Sunday, but he’s expected to play with a brace on his left knee after his awkward fall against the Rams last weekend.
The Eagles would no doubt love to ride Barkley and limit the playmaking burden on Hurts, and that makes the Under on 190.5 passing yards worth a look, especially in cold conditions against a solid Washington pass rush.
Hurts has thrown for just 259 total yards across Philly’s first two playoff contests, so look for the hosts to lean on short throws rather than riskier dropbacks.
The Commanders will settle for that, and they held up well against Jared Goff last weekend, snaring three interceptions.
Prop to target: Jalen Hurts Under 190.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Buffalo Bills
Biggest weakness: Inexperienced safeties
Lights-out passing games have been in short supply for the Kansas City Chiefs this season, but Patrick Mahomes is still as good as it gets when it comes to exploiting weaknesses — and he’ll surely have the back end of this Buffalo Bills defense in his sights on Sunday.
The Bills have ruled out safety Taylor Rapp and will turn to rookie Cole Bishop alongside Damar Hamlin. It’s asking a lot for that duo to hold up here, with Mahomes’ masterful ability to keep secondaries off balance.
Those are matchups that I expect the Chiefs to go after selectively, and Xavier Worthy could be a big beneficiary on deep balls when Buffalo overcommits to slowing down Travis Kelce.
Worthy has piled up 26 catches on 37 targets across his last four games, and he’s reached the 50-yard mark in two of his last three outings. He had 61 yards and a touchdown against the Bills earlier this season, and he stands out as an X-factor in this spot.
Prop to target: Xavier Worthy Over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Kansas City Chiefs
Biggest weakness: Undersized linebackers
The Chiefs held the Houston Texans to just 14 points in the Divisional Round, but the Bills present far bigger challenges, particularly for the middle of this Kansas City defense.
Buffalo ran for three touchdowns in its 30-21 victory over the Chiefs in November, and I’m not convinced that linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill have the size to contain Josh Allen once he gets going.
The Kansas City starters are coming off back-to-back rough days against the run, allowing 149 yards on the ground in the win over Houston and 202 rushing yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.
Meanwhile, the Bills’ offensive line is giving Allen opportunities to reach the second level, and he finished with 12 carries for 55 yards and a score in the Week 11 victory.
The visitors will have to convert some short-yardage situations to finally outlast the Chiefs in the postseason, and there’s no one better than Allen in those key moments. I’m taking the Over on 9.5 rushing attempts at Arrowhead Stadium.
Prop to target: Josh Allen Over 9.5 rushing attempts (-120 at BetMGM)
