The season-opening Week 1 edition of Monday Night Football is set to be a great one, with the New York Jets welcoming the Buffalo Bills to MetLife Stadium in our MNF odds.
Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen being under center opens up some fascinating prop wagers for us. Both quarterbacks have great supporting casts with the likes of Stefon Diggs and Garrett Wilson catching passes and Breece Hall and James Cook pounding the rock.
The NFL odds suggest this should be a fun game, so let’s look at my best free NFL picks for MNF — with a focus on NFL player props tonight.
For more MNF coverage, also check out Jason Logan's Bills vs. Jets picks and predictions, as well as Ed Scimia's Aaron Rodgers prop picks spotlight for tonight.
Bills vs Jets MNF props
- Dalton Kincaid anytime TD
- Dalvin Cook Over 41.5 rushing yards
- Damien Harris Over 24.5 rushing yards
Picks made on September 10 at 5:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Bills vs Jets MNF props
Prop bet #1: Kincaid is a pass catcher
For me, there’s one anytime TD prop that absolutely leaps off the page for this game and that’s new Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. The former Utah man is a huge +425 to find the end zone and that doesn't make much sense to me.
We can’t take much from preseason but it’s worth noting that we didn’t see much of his pass-blocking. I know we're taught not to trust rookie tight ends — and that’s generally been good advice in recent years — but Kincaid was drafted to be a pass catcher. We're going to see lots of him in the slot and that should allow him to create mismatches and take advantage of his athleticism.
At +425, I’m more than happy to back the third receiving option on a team that has Josh Allen under center. This is your value play of the day.
Dalton Kincaid prop: Anytime TD (+425)
Prop bet #2: Signed for a reason
We were all excited to see Breece Hall this year but the signing of Dalvin Cook tells us the New York Jets don’t believe that they can rely on Hall in the short-term while he recovers from last season’s ACL injury.
Let’s get it straight, Cook wasn’t great last year. His regression and relatively poor play are the reasons the Vikings were happy to move on and although I doubt he’s going to suddenly improve again after years of punishing plays, I think he could be a reasonable stopgap until Hall is 100% healthy again.
The oddsmakers have a higher rushing yards total on Cook than Hall and I agree, I think he’ll get most of the carries. With a line at just 41.5, I’m happy to wager that he goes Over.
Dalvin Cook prop: Over 41.5 rushing yards (-118)
Prop bet #3: Harris spoils Cook's party
It looks like I’m backing another recently signed, past his best, veteran to top their rushing yard total here. This time, I’m talking about the Bills’ Damien Harris, formerly of the Patriots, whose rushing yard line sits at 24.5.
He’s a bigger, stronger back than James Cook, who is the perceived RB1. Cook can look dangerous and shifty in the open field but I’m not convinced he has enough to ever be a bellcow in the NFL. He’ll lead the RB room in targets but I’d suggest that in terms of carries, it’ll be closer to a 60/40 split in favor of Cook.
Harris is the type of physical back that can grind out those hard yards against a solid Jets defense. A line of 24.5 rushing yards is one I feel he'll have no trouble going Over.
Damien Harris prop: Over 24.5 rushing yards (-110)
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