The primetime lights shine on the NFC South when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to Mercedes Benz Stadium to clash with the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
The anytime touchdown markets for this mid-week matchup are tough to predict when you consider Atlanta scored 26 points in Week 3 but failed to register a single offensive touchdown. Meanwhile, the Bucs have one of the better attacks, ranking Top 10 in points per play behind a passing game with the second most TDs in the league.
I run down those NFL odds for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks for Buccaneers vs. Falcons on October 3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers anytime touchdown pick
My best bet:
Chris Godwin anytime touchdown (+165 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
Chris Godwin is going to give the Atlanta Falcons fits on Thursday. With Atlanta running a high rate of zone and guarding against the deep ball, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers slot receiver will go to work finding that space underneath.
Not only is Godwin one of the best wideouts against zone coverage in the land (rated No. 5 at PFF) but the Falcons enter Week 5 ranked dead last in the NFL in terms of slot secondary.
Godwin is drawing the highest snap rate for Tampa Bay’s receivers, leads the team in targets (34), and has caught all four passes his way in the red zone — two for touchdowns.
Fellow WR Mike Evans (who sits just ahead of Godwin in the anytime TD odds) will draw the attention of Atlanta’s top corners and busy them deeper down the field, creating space for No. 14 to catch and run on short and intermediate routes.
New offensive coordinator Liam Coen utilizes Godwin’s versatility, moving him from the slot to wideout as well as hitting him on screen passes. He’s a handful for defensive coordinators, especially on a short week of preparation.
Godwin also loves playing on the quick indoor surface, with a touchdown in 42% of his indoor appearances vs. 32% outside. Player projections range from 0.3 to 0.6 touchdowns from him tonight, with my number coming in at 0.42 which should have his TD anytime price around +138.
Considering the matchup and Evans not being 100% (knee/calf), I’ll snatch him up at +165.
Atlanta Falcons anytime touchdown pick
My best bet:
Tyler Allgeier anytime touchdown (+230 at DraftKings)
My analysis:
Tyler Allgeier is the second option on the ground for the Falcons, but his production should have Atlanta scheming up ways to get the running back more involved.
He’s averaging more than 6.0 yards per carry to start 2024 and is coming off his most productive day in Week 4, rushing eight times for 60 yards, along with two receptions for 20 yards.
While Bijan Robinson gets the majority of action, Allgeier has seen his workload increase and played a season-high 38% of snaps last Sunday. Robinson also missed practice time with a hamstring injury on the short week, so those snap counts could look at lot more balanced on Thursday.
The Falcons would be smart to lean into the running game tonight, considering Tampa Bay’s blitz-heavy schemes will be trying to get after veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Stopping the run has been a soft spot for the Buccaneers, who rank 27th in run stop win rate at ESPN.
The Bucs actually sit dead last in EPA allowed per carry and 25th in success rate per run entering Week 5. Tampa Bay has also allowed the second most receiving yards to pass-catching RBs, giving up 9.3 yards per reception to those dual-threat rushers.
Player projections for Allgeier range from 0.2 to 0.3 touchdowns with my number at 0.25. His anytime touchdown piece sits as short as +175 at some books, with DraftKings offering +230 on Allgeier to make the most out of his expanded role.
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