Both teams come into Week 17 on a one-game winning streak, but that’s about the end of the similarities between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets. The Bucs have sealed the NFC South and can now focus on getting healthy for their playoff push while the Jets start to turn their focus to next year.
Don’t bet on this game without first reading our NFL picks and predictions for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets on Sunday, January 2.
Buccaneers vs Jets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Since the lines opened, we’ve seen the points total drop marginally from 46 to 45.5. The Buccaneers have unsurprisingly remained 13-point favorites.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Buccaneers vs Jets predictions
- Prediction: Jets +13 (-110)
- Prediction: Over 45.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Michael Carter Over 17.5 receiving yards (-110)
Predictions made on 12/30/2021 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for NFL Week 17, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Bet $1, get $100 in free bets when you sign up with BetVictor! Sign Up Now
Buccaneers vs Jets game info
• Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Buccaneers at Jets betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Key injuries
Buccaneers: Richard Sherman CB (Out), Shaquil Barrett DE (Out), Jason Pierre-Paul DE (Out), Lavonte David LB (Out), Chris Godwin WR (Out), Leonard Fournette RB (Out).
Jets: Jamison Crowder WR (Out), Alijah Vera-Tucker OL (Out), Mekhi Becton T (Out), Elijah Moore WR (Out), Corey Davis WR (Out), Marcus Maye S (Out), Vinny Curry DE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Jets.
Buccaneers vs Jets picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
On Sunday, there are some brilliant divisional games and matchups between elite teams. Then there are other games, between teams who already know their fate for the playoffs. These games are merely box-ticking, just about finishing off the season strong before moving on to the postseason or holiday, depending on the team. Sunday’s meeting of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets fits into the latter.
We know where both of the teams are in their seasons. The Jets are 4-11 and have shown some improvements under Robert Saleh, we’ve seen some promising moments from Zach Wilson, and there’s plenty to build on in 2022. For the Bucs, they’re now just waiting for the playoffs. They sit on an 11-4 record and have already won the NFC South. The NY Times have given them a 4% chance of securing the first-round bye and the Bucs would need a series of events to go in their favor.
For the Bucs now, it’s all about staying healthy. The defense has some big names missing, particularly from the secondary. The offense is too missing some big names, including Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Last week, we saw Antonio Brown lead the team in receptions in his comeback from suspension. His 10 receptions were more than the eight combined by the rest of the roster and he went for 101 yards, although he didn’t manage to find the endzone.
The Bucs leaned heavily on Ronald Jones to carry the ball in their 32-6 win over the Panthers. His 20 carries only amount to 65 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per carry, and he was outperformed by the sophomore Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Vaughn turned seven carries into 70 yards and was subsequently described as “lead dog” by Bruce Arians. Whether we see him lead the backfield is debatable but it’s a possibility and something to keep an eye on.
The Buccaneers are a far better team than the Jets in every aspect. Defensively, the Bucs have only allowed 20.8 points per game, compared to the 29.9 allowed by the Jets. Those numbers are also echoed in defensive DVOA, with the Bucs ranked 8th in weighted defensive DVOA, compared with the Jets, who sit dead last. It’s been surprising to see the Jets struggle so bad defensively having hired a defense-oriented head coach in Saleh.
It’s not just defense in which the Bucs are outperforming the Jets. The Buccaneers are ranked second in weighted offensive DVOA, 18 spots higher than the Jets, who sit in 20th.
With that in mind, you’re probably expecting me to back the Bucs to cover the spread here, but I simply can’t recommend that. I’m confident that the Buccaneers will still secure the win but it’s difficult to see them doing so by more than 13 points.
Firstly, the injuries. The Bucs have been hit very hard and they’re now dealing with a shadow offense composed of backups. Their defense is also missing some big names, and the weakening of the secondary might well play into the hands of Zach Wilson, who should get opportunities to showcase his arm strength.
Secondly, the game is nearly meaningless for the Bucs. Sure, it’s still mathematically possible for them to secure the round one bye, and we know Tom Brady doesn’t take days off, but it’s also easy to see the coaching staff potentially resting players or reducing snap count if it will benefit the team in the playoffs.
Thirdly, the Jets have done a good job of putting up points in recent weeks. They’re not a brilliant offense by any means, and do have injuries, but they are finding means of scoring points.
Prediction: Jets +13 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
As mentioned above, this Jets team seems to be able to score points and I’m confident in them sticking close enough to the Buccaneers here to make the Over land.
Trends also point us toward backing the Over. The Over is 13-3 in the Buccaneers’ past 16 games following a win of over two scores. It’s also 5-0 in the Jets’ past five games following an ATS win. Back the Over and watch it cash.
Prediction: Over 45.5 Total Points (-110)
Best bet
There have been a number of different areas that the Jets have improved in this year, but the drafting of rookie Michael Carter seems to have been a great selection. With the backfield looking like a running back by committee earlier in the season it’s Carter that has become the lead back, ahead of better-known names like Tevin Coleman.
Carter has been described by Robert Saleh as a “special talent”, but he wasn’t particularly heralded heading into the NFL Draft last year. He spent three years at North Carolina and was drafted in the fourth round, but it’s clear that he has some ability and could become a force if the offensive line improved. He ranks third in missed tackles forced this season (per PFF) behind Javonte Williams and Nick Chubb, and has good hands too.
Those good hands should see him get some use in the passing game on Sunday and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Zach Wilson dump off to him frequently because of the ability of the Bucs' pass rush and their ability to create pressure.
Pick: Michael Carter Over 17.5 receiving yards (-110)
