The Kansas City Chiefs head to Ohio to face off against the Cleveland Browns in NFL action on Sunday afternoon.
There's a good chance of wet and windy weather at Huntington Bank Field, which is one reason why my Chiefs vs Browns predictions are betting on the Under.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this AFC showdown on December 15.
Chiefs vs Browns predictions and picks
- Spread: Chiefs -4 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline: Chiefs ML (-225 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Under 43 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Under 43 (-110 at BetMGM)
Chiefs vs Browns spread
The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games and their last four victories have come by three points or fewer. That said, the Browns have also struggled to cover the spread, going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
I'll lean toward the reigning Super Bowl champs on a relatively short line, especially since the messy weather will likely have a bigger impact on the Cleveland Browns offense.
Chiefs vs Browns moneyline
2024 has been the year of the Chiefs being criticized for failing to dominate opponents or win by a large margin. That said, they're still 12-1 straight up, and the Browns are just 3-10 and have little to play for.
Boasting significant advantages when it comes to both quarterback play and coaching, the Chiefs should keep winning here.
Chiefs vs Browns Over/Under
Everything has been underneath for the Chiefs offense, and combined with a defense that allows 19.4 points per game, this has led to lower-scoring contests.
The Browns have also been solid defensively and their passing attack will be hindered by wet and windy weather on Sunday. The Under is the play.
Chiefs vs Browns best bet
My best bet: Under 43 (-110 at BetMGM)
There's a strong probability of messy weather in this contest, with winds expected to be around 15 mph with a 90% chance of rain.
If the elements neutralize Cleveland's aerial attack, the Browns offense will struggle since they can't move the ball on the ground. After all, Cleveland is just 28th in rush success rate, while K.C. ranks fourth in defensive rush EPA. The Chiefs' biggest defensive weakness has been their inability to cover tight ends, but it looks like they'll be off the hook with Browns TE David Njoku sidelined.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns are second in the NFL in pressure rate while the Chiefs offensive line allows pressure at the seventh-highest rate. That will make it tough for Patrick Mahomes to get comfortable in the pocket.
Mahomes sits 39th out of 41 qualifying QBs in average intended air yards (6.2) while the Chiefs are just 23rd in yards per play (5.1). They enter Week 15 leading the league in third down conversion rate (51.96%), which helps them drain the clock with long drives and contributes to lower-scoring games.
Chiefs vs Browns same-game parlay
Under 43
Chiefs alternate spread -1
Nick Chubb Under 44.5 rushing yards
Although I'm wary of backing the Chiefs at more than a field goal, I expect them to win against a turnover-prone Cleveland team. After all, the Chiefs are clearly the better side and their offense has been less reliant on throwing downfield, so it will be less impacted by the weather.
The Chiefs hold opposing running backs to a league-low 58.5 rushing yards per game on a paltry 3.4 yards per carry, and Nick Chubb has struggled since returning from a brutal season-ending knee injury in 2023. He's rushed for just 291 yards and 3.1 yards per carry in seven games and has split carries with Jerome Ford over the last two weeks.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Chiefs vs Browns odds
Chiefs vs Browns live odds
Chiefs vs Browns opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City -6.5 | Cleveland +6.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -300 | Cleveland +240
- Over/Under: Over 44 | Under 4
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Chiefs vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money came in on the Browns, dropping the line from -6.5 to -4.
- The total initially saw money on the Over, but buyback on the Under has brought it down from 45 to 43 as of Friday afternoon.
- The Chiefs are tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFL but are just ninth in offensive EPA and 17th in defensive EPA.
- Jameis Winston has committed 3+ turnover-worthy plays in four of his six starts this year.
Chiefs vs Browns betting trend to know
Cleveland has only hit the team total Over in five of its last 19 games (-12.30 Units / -53% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Browns.
Chiefs vs Browns game info
| Location: | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Chiefs vs Browns latest injuries
Chiefs vs Browns weather
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