Chiefs vs Saints Preseason Picks and Predictions: Teams Put Best Foot Forward in First Half

The Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints will kick off their 2023 preseason on Sunday afternoon at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. 

The defending Super Bowl champions will look to mean business even in Week 1 of the preseason in their title defense. Meanwhile, the Saints will be debuting a new quarterback and are trying to improve off their disappointing 7-10 record last year. 

This is one of the rare Week 1 preseason games where we will see starting unit vs starting unit on both sides of the ball for at least a series or two. 

I analyze the point spread and total and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Chiefs vs. Saints below. 

Chiefs vs Saints odds

Chiefs vs Saints predictions

It is always nice when you get a solid plan laid out in front of you for a preseason game, and that is what both head coaches have done for us here. Andy Reid said that the Chiefs starters will get a full quarter. However, that may come with a bit of a disclaimer. 

Last season, Reid said the same thing and the starting unit only played the first drive and did not complete the quarter despite getting the ball back with just over four minutes to play in the quarter. However, Patrick Mahomes and company did drive down the field for a touchdown, so Reid probably saw enough to be happy with them for that contest. 

Jeff Duncan of NOLA.com reported that the Saints plan to play their starters 15 snaps (1-2 drives) and the second stringers 25 snaps (2-4 drives). Then the third stringers will finish out the game. Thank you, New Orleans, for giving the bettors such a clear picture — assuming that plan is executed. 

This means almost the entire first quarter will be as if this was a regular season NFL game. Obviously, I would love the Chiefs in that scenario. It is very likely that if you get two series of Mahomes and company, that you are going to get at least 10 points. 

Although, the Saints will have some offensive firepower themselves with their two starting series. Derek Carr will have some serious weapons with Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and possibly Alvin Kamara. There is no reason to believe they could not put up at least six points in their two drives. That gives us a good chance at 16 points before the starters exit.

Then the second stringers will include the likes of Jameis Winston, Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill for the Saints. It will include Blaine Gabbert, Justyn Ross, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire for the Chiefs. Surely, these players could muster up at least two field goals in the second quarter. This makes the first half Over my best bet of the game. 

My best bet: First half Over 19.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Chiefs vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis

The first half would certainly favor the Chiefs in my opinion, but when looking at full game spreads in the preseason, the second half is where to really focus. The quarterbacks playing most of these snaps will be Shane Buechele for the Chiefs and Jake Haener for the Saints. This is a big advantage for New Orleans. 

Haener was drafted in the fourth round in April and is in a serious competition with Winston for the second-string job due to his great camp thus far. We may even get to see a little Taysom Hill and Jimmy Graham on the field late in the game as targets for Haener. Unless Ross and Edwards-Helaire remain on the field for the Chiefs late, they may not do much scoring in the second half. 

The Saints would certainly be my lean for the full game spread as 1.5-point favorites. 

As for the total, I already mentioned how much I love the first half Over. However, the second half will certainly not be as high scoring as the first unless the defenses really struggle. 

The full game total is currently sitting at 37.5 points. This means that if the first half finishes with around 20-24 points, there would still need to be 18-22 second half points to hit the full game Over. That will not be easy. 

Nonetheless, I would lean towards closer to 30 points in the first half rather than just 20 points. And while the offenses will be much worse in the second half, so will the defenses. So, I would still lean towards the full game Over, just with less confidence than the first half Over. 

Chiefs vs Saints betting trend to know

The Chiefs have averaged 13.8 points in the first half of their last five preseason games, and the Saints have averaged 13.6 points in the first half of their last five preseason games. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Saints.

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