It’s an NFC East showdown at Northwest Stadium between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders this Sunday, and both teams are looking to snap losing skids.
Dallas has dropped five straight, while Washington is looking to return to the win column as a commanding favorite in the NFL odds despite a two-game skid.
My top Cowboys vs. Commanders predictions and NFL picks expect the game to be closer than the spread suggests, and for Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin to have a big day against a vulnerable Dallas secondary.
Cowboys vs Commanders prediction
My best bet
Terry McLaurin Over 58.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The elephant in the room is Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin’s weekly inconsistency, but it's also built into this favorable receiving yards total against the bottomed-out Dallas Cowboys. He closed at 61.5 receiving yards against a far more daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense last week.
Dallas has been shredded through the air for the second-highest yards per target (10.4) and catch percentage (71.3%) to wide receivers while also allowing the fifth-highest EPA per dropback during its five-game losing skid.
McLaurin being targeted just two times during last week’s loss to the Eagles is inexcusable. He turned those two targets into a single 10-yard grab, and now we’re landing a lower receiving yards total in a much more favorable matchup.
The sixth-year wideout needs to be a go-to focus in the offense if Washington is going to continue on its postseason path, and McLaurin is also sporting his highest aDoT (15.0) and contested catch percentage (73.9%) of his career.
An uptick in targets is coming McLaurin’s way in Week 12, and Dallas doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow him down. The Cowboys have allowed 10 wide-outs to record 68 or more receiving yards this season, with six of them doing so during the five-game losing streak.
I’m also expecting the Cowboys to have a little more success on offense and be more competitive overall this week with quarterback Cooper Rush starting his third consecutive game and ninth of his career. He might be 0-2 as a starter this year, but he went 5-1 across six starts during the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Dallas bringing more to the table this week will prevent the Washington offense from going into a shell and will have it looking McLaurin’s way more consistently.
Cowboys vs Commanders same-game parlay
Cowboys +10.5
Terry McLaurin Over 58.5 receiving yards
Brian Robinson Jr. anytime touchdown
A big reason why I’m a believer in the Cowboys hanging around and keeping this game interesting is because the Commanders aren’t running out an elite stop unit. They have allowed 25.3 points per game across their past three while going 1-2.
Two of those games were against the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers, too.
Washington has also allowed a higher offensive success rate and dropback success rate than Dallas, and the Commanders rank 26th in EPA per play against and 29th in PFF defense grade.
Returning to the Washington offense to round out my Cowboys vs. Commanders SGP picks, running back Brian Robinson Jr. has found the end zone in six of eight games this season, and the Cowboys have allowed a rushing touchdown in seven of 10 games.
Dallas has also allowed the most rushing scores (18) in the NFL, and opposing offenses have converted red-zone trips into touchdowns at the highest rate (74.3%) in the league against the Cowboys. Additionally, Robinson has taken seven of his 27 red-zone rushes to the house, including four of eight inside the five-yard line.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cowboys vs Commanders odds
Cowboys vs Commanders live odds
Cowboys vs Commanders opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +9.5 | Washington -9.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +350 | Washington -450
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Cowboys vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a notable move to the Washington side after BetMGM opened Commanders -9.5. I’m anticipating buyback on Dallas with the -115 odds on the +10.5 likely leading to Cowboys +10.
- This is the first time Washington has been a favorite of more than three points against Dallas since 2007, and the Cowboys are both 5-1 straight up and against the spread over the past three years.
- The total for this NFC East bout at BetMGM has seen small moves to both the Over and Under. It opened at 44.5 and climbed to 45.5 on Sunday evening before dropping to 45 on Tuesday afternoon.
- I’m not anticipating a major move to the total ahead of Sunday.
Cowboys vs Commanders betting trend to know
McLaurin has recorded 98 or more receiving yards in five of his past nine games. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Commanders.
Cowboys vs Commanders game info
| Location: | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-24-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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