Let’s be honest — the Super Wild Card Weekend games kind of sucked thanks to blowouts in five of the six games, but like I often say, “this is why we bet.”
Monday’s Steelers vs. Bills game was anything but entertaining, but I clung to my TV until the final whistle to see if the Steelers could cover the 10-point spread. They of course did not, which resulted in the Bills bringing an end to their 0-8 ATS skid as a double-digit favorite.
So that trend was a bust last week, as was the Over in Detroit after the offenses fell asleep in the second half. But the other four NFL betting trends in last week’s article came through, so hopefully we can pick up in the Divisional Round odds where we left off in the Wild Card Round.
In the intro to last week’s trend article, I discussed how emotions come into play in these games much more often than in normal regular-season games, and that those emotions can be hard to predict. However, I probably should have leaned more heavily into the emotional trend of the Cowboys urinating all over themselves once the playoffs get here because that’s become as predictable as the sun rising in the morning.
Unfortunately we don’t have any epic chokers we can fade in the NFL odds this weekend, but the Divisional Round gives us four intriguing games with some standout betting opportunities when making NFL picks.
Here’s my favorite trend and a bonus trend for each Divisional Round game! And don't forget to check out our Super Bowl odds page!
Best NFL Divisional Round betting trends
Texans vs Ravens
The trend: The Texans have gone Under the first-half total in all eight of their road games this season
The first halves in Texans road games this season have seen an average of just 14.1 combined points. This is thanks primarily to their defense that’s allowing just 5.8 points per first half in away games. Of course, it takes two to tango on a totals bet, and what do you know, the Ravens allow a league-low seven points per first half. It might not mean much considering it was a Week 1 game, but when these teams met to open the season in Baltimore, they combined for just 13 first-half points. The first-half total for the game is set at 23.5.
Bonus Trend: The Ravens went 14-3 ATS in the first half this season.
See all Texans vs. Ravens trends for Divisional Round.
Packers vs 49ers
The trend: 11 of San Francisco’s 12 wins this season were by double-digits
This seems relevant given the 10-point spread favoring the 49ers over the Packers. This trend would have gone a perfect 12-for-12 if not for a meaningless Rams’ field goal with time expiring back in Week 2.
Specific to playing at home, the 49ers have been stacking some big wins for a while now as they have 16 wins by 12 or more points in their last 22 at home, so laying the smackdown is nothing new. This is a similar spot to last season when they opened their playoffs at home as a 9.5-point favorite against the Seahawks. They won that game by 18.
Bonus Trend: The 49ers are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games played in January.
See all Packers vs. 49ers trends for Divisional Round.
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Buccaneers vs Lions
The trend: The Bucs are 8-1 ATS on the road this season
The Buccaneers did their best work outside of Tampa Bay this season and often made a habit of playing up to the competition as they were an underdog in eight of these games and were an outright winner in four of them. Another angle to consider is Tampa’s team total Over, as that hit in six of their nine road games. The Lions are favored by six points while the Bucs’ team total is set at 21.5.
Bonus Trend: Baker Mayfield is 3-0 ATS in his playoff career with seven TDs and one INT.
See all Buccaneers vs. Lions trends for Divisional Round.
Chiefs vs Bills
The trend: The Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in 16 of 18 games this season
If it’s not broke, don’t fix it, and we like to play the hits around here! Including last week’s game against the Dolphins, Chiefs’ second halves this season are averaging just 14.7 points. Conveniently enough, this has also been a hot spot in Bills’ home games where its hit in eight of 10 games this season with those games seeing an average of 18 second-half points. Both teams rank in the Top 5 in second-half points allowed regardless of location, and they combined for 16 second-half points when they played on December 10. The second-half total for the game is 22.5.
Bonus Trend: The Chiefs are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog.
See all Chiefs vs. Bills trends for Divisional Round.
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