NFL Divisional Round Bet Now, Bet Later: Total Keeps Rising For Packers-49ers

Thanks to the winter weather in Western New York shaking up the Wild Card schedule, the full NFL Divisional Round odds will have to wait a bit longer.

That means my latest NFL "Bet Now, Bet Later" article will be a living and breathing piece, growing as we finalize those second-round matchups and betting markets on Monday.

For now, these are my best spreads and totals to bet now as well as the NFL odds you might want to wait a little bit longer on before getting action down on your NFL picks.

Divisional Round bet now, bet later picks

• Packers at 49ers (Under 51): Bet Now
• Tampa Bay at Detroit (Under 48.5)
• Chiefs (+3) at Bills
• Texans (+9.5) at Ravens spread

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Under 51): Bet Now

Before the Green Bay Packers-Dallas Cowboys Wild Card squash was even complete, sportsbooks like FanDuel had this Divisional Round line on the board. The Over/Under opened at 49.5 points and climbed to 50 on Sunday evening.

As of Monday morning, this total has ticked up to the key number of 51 points at some sharper sportsbooks and I'm buying back the Under at that stop now.

This upward movement feels like a knee-jerk based on the 48-32 final score on Sunday. While the Packers offense was impressive, it wasn't THAT impressive. One of those touchdowns belonged to the defense from a pick-six in the second quarter and before that, the Cheeseheads were gift-wrapped a red-zone possession (and subsequent TD) from another Dallas INT deep in its own end.

Also skewing the box score were late strikes from a desperate Dallas offense, which scored 16 fourth-quarter points in "garbage time" after Green Bay benched several defensive starters.

The Packers now have to travel for a second straight week to face the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday night. The Niners defense is among the best in the land, but the offensive pace of this Divisional Round game will be the exact opposite of Sunday's shootout.

The 49ers run the ball at the second-highest rate and Kyle Shanahan's pre-snap motion chews up the most clock in the league, with San Francisco running the slowest tempo in terms of seconds per play. The Packers run stop ranks bottom third in the league (allowed 4.9 yards per carry when Dallas did run the ball) and that will allow the 49ers to go on extended drives while parking the Packers offense on the sideline. 

When Green Bay does have the ball, it faces a San Francisco stop unit great at getting pressure without needing the blitz (the third-lowest rate in the land). That means the middle of the field will be clogged with linebackers, stuffing the run and gumming up the passing lanes for Jordan Love.

There could be plenty of points scored, but I don't think this game deserves as tall a total and the number hitting the key of 51 is my breaking point.

Also on the radar is possible rain in Santa Clara on Saturday evening. The extended forecast calls for showers at the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff, getting stronger in the second half. Winds won't be too breezy, with gusts up to 16 mph.

Best odds to bet Under 51 right now

-116 at Pinnacle

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (Under 48.5): Bet Later

Look-ahead totals had this potential matchup pegged with an Over/Under of 46.5 points on Monday afternoon. Then the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went out and cut through the Eagles' defense like a hot knife through butter.

Tampa Bay, not known for its explosiveness, looked like Ken Griffey Jr. with home run after home run, scoring touchdowns of 44 and 56 yards.

That impressive offensive eruption started adding points to the live look-ahead lines during Monday’s game, driving those totals as high as 50 points. As more books opened their official Divisional Round openers, the total settled in between 48.5 and 49 points.

That total range would easily be the tallest O/U for Tampa this season, with its totals maxing out at 43.5 points down the stretch of the regular season.

This Over/Under could keep ticking up in the next couple of days, so keep an eye on the key O/U number of 51 points.

Sunday’s game is being played on the fast track inside Ford Field and the Detroit Lions defense should have given up more than 23 points in the Wild Card win over the L.A. Rams, considering they hemorrhaged 425 total yards (Rams went 0 for 3 in red zone).

All that said, there very well could be an O/U tipping point with these teams. The Bucs defense looked fantastic versus Philly and Tampa Bay would be the toughest stop unit the Lions have taken on in a while.

Wait to see if we hit the 51-point bar and then think about buying back the Under later.

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at Buffalo Bills: Bet Now

We get another chapter of this red-hot AFC rivalry on Sunday. The Buffalo Bills were bouncing between -2.5 and -3 for this Divisional Round matchup before and during their Wild Card win over the Steelers, but we're starting to see openers sink to Buffalo -2.

Due to Sunday’s Wild Card game getting bumped to Monday, the Bills are on a short week to prep and rest for the Kansas City Chiefs and have a laundry list of ailments on the stop unit. The defense lost LB Terrel Bernard to an ankle injury and other defenders got dinged up versus Pittsburgh.

While Buffalo was anything but dominant in the Wild Card win, Kansas City was impressive on both sides of the ball in a 28-7 victory over Miami – a win in which Kansas City left points on the table with a 2-for-6 day inside the red zone.

Buffalo may have home field but the Chiefs have a significant rest advantage, having played on Saturday. The extended forecast for Sunday night isn’t as severe as this past weekend, with clear skies, light winds, and “feels like” temperatures around 3 degrees in Orchard Park.

The Bills did beat Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 14 as 1-point road underdogs, featuring the infamous offside call on Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney.

That penalty erased what would have been a go-ahead touchdown on a lateral from Travis Kelce to Toney with just over a minute remaining. The Chiefs out-gained Buffalo and averaged 5.6 yards per play in that game despite having the football for only 24:39, thanks in part to two turnovers.

If you’re not breaking out the tables this weekend, bet the Chiefs +3 or with all the points you can get right now.

Houston Texans (+9.5) at Baltimore Ravens: Bet Later

The upstart Houston Texans take on another AFC North opponent in the playoffs, traveling to Baltimore to battle the No. 1 Ravens.

The look-ahead lines were sitting as low as Baltimore -8.5 but once the Divisional Round schedule was official, books opened the spread as high as -9.5 for Saturday’s showdown at M&T Bank Stadium.

If you’re thinking about backing Houston as the road dog, wait for more points. There should be plenty of narrative and factors influencing this line upward in the coming days.

You have rookie QB C.J. Stroud and this offense traveling to not only face a rabid road crowd but also the elements. The Texans haven’t played outside since December 17 and have logged just two outdoor games since Week 11.

The extended forecast for Baltimore calls for sustained winds of 18 mph with gusts up to 38 mph on Saturday afternoon. There’s no rain or snow showing, but game-time temperatures will “feel like” the low teens and get colder throughout.

The Ravens are rested and healed on both sides of the ball, especially the defense which sits among the stingiest in the land. Baltimore allowed just 16.5 points per game this season.

These teams clashed way back in Week 1, marking Stroud’s NFL debut. The Ravens won 25-9 as 9.5-point home favorites but were outgained by three yards versus the Texans, who hung around until the five-minute mark of the third quarter.

If you have hope in Houston, wait and get more points later in the week, especially with this spread flirting with the key number of +10.

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