Eagles vs Cowboys SNF Prop Bets: Smith Torches Dallas' Secondary

Prop bet #1: Dak Attack

With his play in the second half of the season, Dak Prescott has put himself in the thick of the MVP race alongside Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy. His dominance isn’t just backed by counting stats either.

While Prescott ranks first in passing touchdowns, fifth in passing yards, and third in completion percentage, the analytics support his case too. The former fourth-round pick is second in EPA per play among quarterbacks, third in success rate, and sixth in CPOE.

And since Week 6, Prescott's been on a whole other level and arguably the best quarterback in the league. Over those seven games, he’s first in EPA per play by a wide margin and first in CPOE and success rate. Prescott also hasn't shied away from being aggressive either, sitting third in air yards since Week 6.

That sets the Dallas Cowboys quarterback up well to take advantage of a Philadelphia Eagles defense that’s been pretty disappointing this season, especially against the pass. Philadelphia is 27th in EPA per play on defense and 26th in EPA per dropback.

Between injuries, inexperience, and aging veterans, teams have gone after this secondary and it's paid off. The Eagles have allowed the second most touchdown passes in the league this season (27), including three against Prescott when they played in Week 9.

It’s a tough matchup for defensive coordinator Sean Desai’s unit given the tear Prescott has been on and the emergence of CeeDee Lamb as a true superstar. It also makes matters tougher that both Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson have gotten into a groove lately. That should allow him to go after any player in the secondary that's not named Darius Slay.

Prescott has already thrown three touchdowns against this Eagles team and has done it in five of 12 games this season, including five times in his last six games. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has given up at least three touchdown passes to five different quarterbacks this season.

Dak Prescott prop: Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+165 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Time to Cook

Prescott elevating to an MVP level this season has coincided with Brandin Cooks beginning to mesh in Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer’s offense. Before Week 6, the six-time 1,000-yard receiver was averaging just 2.25 receptions for 18.25 yards on 4.75 targets per game.

In those first few games with the Cowboys, he didn’t score a touchdown either, but since getting on the same page with Prescott in Week 6, he’s returned to looking like one of the better second fiddles at WR in the league.

Over his last seven games, Cooks is averaging four receptions for 60.5 yards and 0.71 touchdowns per game. He’s also scored at least one touchdown in five of his last seven games, including his last two.

Three of Cook's four best games of the season have come in his last four outings and Prescott has clearly become more comfortable leaning on the former first-round pick when Lamb isn’t open.

Few corners have been as bad as James Bradberry this season and Cooks should see plenty of him Sunday night. Bradberry leads the league in touchdown passes allowed this season with nine and is giving up a 107.8 QB rating when targeted. He’s also given up at least one touchdown pass in seven of 11 games this season, including eight in as many games. When they played the Cowboys in Week 9, Bradberry allowed 68 yards and a score on eight targets.

Cooks thrives when positioned on the outside, particularly excelling in vertical plays where he can pose challenges for two safeties. Reed Blankenship has given up four touchdowns in coverage this season, and Kevin Byard is allowing a 112.3 QB rating when targeted.

Brandon Cooks prop: Anytime touchdown (+187 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Slim Reaper

While the Eagles' offense has a far steeper challenge against the Cowboys' defense, it’s not just Dallas that’s loaded with playmakers. Hurts is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and he;s playing behind a top-notch offensive line with arguably the best receiver duo in the league.

There’s no disputing that A.J. Brown has been on an All-Pro level this year, but DeVonta Smith continues to be one of the most dangerous complimentary receivers in the NFL. 

Smith matches up well against a Philly defense that will likely key in on Brown. Smith is 15th in the NFL in receiving yards with 834 and is averaging 69.5 per game. He’s been at his best in his last six games where he’s averaging 5.3 receptions for 75.1 yards on 6.1 targets, including scoring four touchdowns in that span.

Although his pick-sixes have made him one of the most well-known cornerbacks in the NFL, DaRon Bland has been boom or bust for the Cowboys. He’s given up 522 yards, 16th most in the league, and has allowed 292 yards in his last two games. At nickel, Jourdan Lewis is allowing a 100.5 QB rating when targeted, and safeties Jayron Kearse and Malik Hooker have allowed a combined 448 yards on 44 targets.

This season, Smith has had at least 57 receiving yards in six of 12 games and the Cowboys have given up at least 57 receiving yards to 12 different pass catchers this season.

DeVonta Smith prop: Over 56.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)