The Super Bowl pointspread is different from any other NFL spread bettors will tangle with over the course of the football season. **video
Not only is it the most publicly-influenced line but there is a two-week ramp-up to the Big Game, with the bulk of the betting action coming in during the final 48 hours before kickoff.
However, while the late money from the masses will move the odds, those looking for an inside edge when betting the Super Bowl might want to follow the early line moves. Sharp professional players are most often the first ones to bet the Big Game odds the second they hit the board, and we’ve seen just that with the line movement in the Super Bowl LIV betting markets.
The Super Bowl LIV spread opened as low as pick’em with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers on even ground as far as oddsmakers are concerned. However, the first wave of money came in on Kansas City and pushed this pointspread as high as Chiefs -1.5 at some books.
Is that early money on the right side? Possibly, considering how that sharp play has fared in recent Super Bowls.
Here is a look back at the last 12 years of Super Bowl betting, where the early money went and whether it was on the right side or not of the outcome.
Super Bowl XLIII: New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
Opening spread: Patriots -13
Closing spread: Patriots -11.5
The sharps and the public both backed the right side with the Giants winning outright 17-14. They were paying +400 on the moneyline as well.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Opening spread: Steelers -6.5
Closing spread: Steelers -6.5
This matchup was booked pretty evenly but the early money did come in on the underdog and the spread dropped to 5.5 before the Steelers money came in the second week.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLIV: Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints
Opening spread: Colts -3.5
Closing spread: Colts -4.5
The Colts got bet up to as high as 6-point chalk before the game closed with the 4.5-point spread. The early money was on the losing side here but the action was reported as light. While digging through the archives it seems like the sharps were backing the Saints late in the second week.
Early money: Loss
Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Opening spread: Packers -2
Closing spread: Packers -3
The Packers were a Wild Card entry into the postseason but their impressive march through the NFC playoffs had most football fans thinking they were a better team than the Steelers. Bettors backed the Pack early and they proved to be right with Aaron Rodgers holding up the championship belt.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLVI: New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
Opening spread: Patriots -3.5
Closing spread: Patriots -3
Here’s another similar spot here for the books. The early money came in on the underdog Giants who won the game outright over the Patriots again.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLVII: San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Opening spread: 49ers -4
Closing spread: 49ers -4.5
The numbers above might say the bettors were on the wrong side, but the line history at Pinnacle shows the first move was in favor of the underdog Ravens. Pinnacle dropped to 49ers -3.5 two days after opening with San Franciso giving four points.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLVIII: Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
Opening spread: Pick
Closing spread: Seahawks -1.5
The early action wasn’t uniform across the industry because of the variations of opening lines. Some shops opened with the Broncos favored by two points others listed the game as a pick. Either way, the smart and early money was on the Seahawks, who crushed Peyton Manning and the Broncos.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLIX: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
Opening spread: Patriots -1
Closing spread: Patriots -1
The action was split for the full two-week buildup to the Big Game for Super Bowl XLIX. The spread as a near pick’em and that’s how the bettors saw the game.
Early money: Draw
Super Bowl L: Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers
Opening spread: Panthers -3.5
Closing spread: Panthers -4.5
The Panthers almost went undefeated on their way to their second Super Bowl appearance as a franchise, but they didn’t show up in the big game and bettors paid a price at the window.
Early money: Loss
Super Bowl LI: New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
Opening spread: Patriots -3
Closing spread: Patriots -3
The early money came in on the Patriots but not enough to move the spread. The books received two-way action but the first at the window were betting chalk.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl LII: New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Opening spread: Patriots -5.5
Closing spread: Patriots -4.5
All the early action was on the underdog Eagles despite the fact they entered the Big Game with starting quarterback Carson Wentz sidelined due to injury. Million dollar bets poured in on Philly and sportsbooks toyed with the idea of dropping the spread to 3.5 before the Pats money showed up on the final weekend.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl LIII: New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams
Opening spread: Patriots -1.5
Closing spread: Patriots -2.5
Early sharp money jumped on the Patriots following their comeback overtime win over Kansas City in the AFC Championship and was steady throughout the two-week ramp up to February 3, with the spread climbing as high as 2.5 before kickoff. Late action showed on the Rams, trimming the closing number to Pats -2 at some books. New England won a snorer of a Super Bowl, 13-3 over Los Angeles.
Early money: Win
