The 6-4 Atlanta Falcons will be looking for a bounce-back performance today when they travel to the Mile High City to face off with the pesky 5-5 Denver Broncos.
The Broncos defense makes it tough for any offense to find a rhythm. My Falcons vs. Broncos predictions believe one of the running backs for the Falcons will be blanked in the passing game.
Find out why I am projecting a shutdown performance in my NFL picks with the game set for 4:05 p.m. ET on November 17, live on FOX.
Falcons vs Broncos prediction
My best bet
Tyler Allgeier Under 0.5 receptions (+120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized two running backs rather effectively this season between Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Robinson has 155 carries with 4.8 yards per attempt, and Allgeier has 85 carries with 5.0 yards per attempt. However, when it comes to the passing game, the targets and catches are completely one-sided.
Robinson has been targeted 46 times out of the backfield for 41 catches. Meanwhile, Allgeier has only been targeted eight times for eight catches. He has not received a single target in each of the past three games. That is despite playing at least 23% of the snaps in each of those contests.
Allgeier has only run 60 routes this season. That is six routes per game, and he only ran four routes in each of the past three games. The Denver Broncos have only allowed 64 targets to players lining up out of the backfield this season. With only 6.4 targets per game, it is hard to see Allgeier getting one of those over Robinson.
Robinson has run 215 routes this season and ran 28 to Allgeier’s four last week. Robinson also had all 18 of the targets out of the backfield over the past three weeks for the Falcons. The averages are all lining up for Robinson to see all six of the projected targets for Atlanta’s backfield.
Falcons vs Broncos same-game parlay
Tyler Allgeier Under 0.5 receptions
Under 44.5
Audric Estime Under 12.5 rushing attempts
To go along with our best bet, I am going to take the Under as well. The Falcons have played some high-scoring games, but they have also played very low-scoring games against good defenses. 28 total points in the Steelers game and 39 total points in the Chiefs game. The Broncos have held seven of their 10 opponents this season below 20 points.
Finally, I will add in Audric Estime to go under 12.5 rush attempts. Last week, Estime broke out and seemed to take over the main role out of the backfield, with 14 carries for 53 yards. However, Sean Payton is a little untrustworthy and will typically roll with the hot hand. I expect Estime only to see a big workload if the game script works out perfectly and he runs well early. I like the odds of that not happening.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Falcons vs Broncos odds
Falcons vs Broncos live odds
Falcons vs Broncos opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +1.5 (-110) | Denver -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Atlanta (+105) | Denver (-125)
- Over/Under: Over 44 (-105) | Under 44 (-115)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Falcons vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread was Falcons -3 before the season, but it opened at Broncos -1.5 this week and has remained there as of Saturday afternoon.
- The Broncos are a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season as favorites. The Falcons are 1-1 ATS this season as underdogs.
- The total was 44.5 before the season, re-opened at the same number, and has remained there as of Saturday afternoon.
- Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have gone Under the total.
Falcons vs Broncos betting trend to know
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Game Total Under in six of their last 10 away games. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Broncos.
Falcons vs Broncos game info
| Location: | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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