The worst team in the NFL gets a big boost in the Week 10 odds with Kyler Murray returning to the Arizona Cardinals as they host the Atlanta Falcons. Murray hasn't played since tearing his ACL last December and the former first-overall pick will look to turn around Arizona's season and prove that he's the long-term answer at quarterback.
The Falcons have lost five of their last seven, but they’re expected to take this game with NFL odds installing them as slim 1.5-point road favorites. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Falcons vs. Cardinals on November 12.
Falcons vs Cardinals odds
Falcons vs Cardinals predictions
It's tough to know exactly what the Arizona Cardinals are getting with Kyler Murray since we haven't seen him on the field in almost a year and he was going through a rough 2022 season even before he tore his ACL. There are other question marks for Arizona, with James Conner also possibly returning at running back and the status of left tackle D.J. Humphries and guard Will Hernandez also up in the air.
So, instead of trying to handicap this enigma of an Arizona offense, let's focus on the other side of the ball and what we do know. We know that Taylor Heinicke will start at quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons again, and we know Arizona is terrible on defense.
Heinicke took over for struggling QB Desmond Ridder midway through Atlanta's Week 9 tilt against the Titans and threw for 175 yards in just the second half. Although the Falcons lost last week, Heinicke completed 21 of 38 passes for 268 yards despite the absence of No. 1 wide receiver Drake London.
London will be back on Sunday and Heinicke is poised for a strong performance against an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in the league in pressure rate and has the worst group of corners in the NFL.
The Cards are 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2) while ranking 31st in opponent pass efficiency rating (102.3). Although they are giving up a middle-of-the-pack 233.0 yards per game through the air in the last three weeks, that number has been deflated by opponents choosing to run the ball with a positive game script.
With the spread for this showdown set at just 1.5 points, this game should be close enough for Atlanta to keep throwing and Heinicke to eclipse his passing yards total.
My best bet: Taylor Heinicke Over 218.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Falcons vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Taylor Heinicke Over 220.5 passing yards
Falcons team total Over 23.5 points
Bijan Robinson Over 55.5 rushing yards
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This SGP is all about fading a Cardinals defense that is 31st in the league in defensive EPA and has been awful against the run (29th in defensive rush success rate) and pass (31st in dropback success). The Falcons offense has been mediocre this year but has been moving the ball better with Heinicke at QB, and the Cardinals have surrendered more than 25 points in five of their last six games.
I'm expecting Heinicke to go Over his passing yards total and I'm also expecting a productive game from Bijan Robinson. The only reason Robinson's rushing yards total is this low is because coach Arthur Smith hasn't been feeding him the ball.
Robinson was taken with the eighth pick overall in the draft and has been efficient as a runner but continues to split carries with last year's fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier, who is averaging just 3.2 yards per pop. It's absolutely bizarre why a run-based team would draft an RB with a Top-10 pick and then not lean on him despite strong play.
Smith is facing plenty of criticism for his usage of Robinson and rumors are swirling of his job being on the line, so we could see him give the ball more to Robinson against this soft Arizona run D.
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Falcons vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
The Cardinals opened as 1.5-point home underdogs and the line briefly shifted to +1 before moving back to +1.5. The total moved from the opening number of 42.5 to 44 before coming back down to 43.5 by Saturday.
The Falcons are coming off a 31-28 upset loss to the Vikings, who were coincidentally starting former Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs just days after trading for him. The Falcons are just 2-5 straight up in their last seven games while covering the spread just once in their previous eight contests.
The Cardinals have lost six games in a row, going 1-4-1 ATS during that span. They're coming off an ugly 27-0 loss to the Browns last week when they played rookie Clayton Tune at QB and had a pathetic 17 passing yards.
Although Dobbs outperformed expectations, he went 1-7 as a starter and averaged just 196.1 passing yards per game and 5.9 yards per attempt, so even a rusty Murray should be an upgrade.
Falcons vs Cardinals betting trend to know
The first half Over has cashed in 13 of Arizona's last 20 games (+6.35 Units/29% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Cardinals.
Falcons vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Sate Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, November 12, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Cardinals +1.5, 41.5 O/U |
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