My top Falcons vs. Vikings predictions and NFL picks expect Minnesota to hand Atlanta a fourth straight loss today.
Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson should end up leaving his mark on the Week 14 contest, which kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on FOX.
Who will win Falcons vs Vikings?
Minnesota continues to find ways to win close games, and I think they have the superior coaching staff. Additionally, the Vikings have plenty of familiarity with Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins, and he’s turned the ball over six times during the Falcons three-game losing streak.
Still, Minny heads into this Week 14 matchup with an active 2-4-1 record against the spread, so I’m expecting the Falcons to hang around or pull off the backdoor cover at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, December 8.
Falcons vs Vikings predictions
My best bet
T.J. Hockenson Over 36.5 receiving yards (-118 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson has five games under his belt since returning from a knee injury that kept him sidelined until Week 9. There’s been game-to-game inconsistency in the box scores, but the overall numbers are solid.
Hockenson has the highest yards per reception (11.0) and aDoT (8.3) since his rookie season, while also posting a career-high 82.1% catch rate. The sixth-year tight end is running routes on 72% of his offensive snaps and being targeted on 24.4% of them, too.
Additionally, this is tied for the lowest receiving yards total of the year for Hockenson, and he closed at 50.5 last week against the Arizona Cardinals.
While this doesn’t check out as a high-end matchup on the surface with the Atlanta Falcons allowing a middling 7.24 yards per target and 72.0 catch percentage to opposing tight ends, they also haven’t faced many top receivers at the position.
With the Falcons primarily playing zone coverage and having to deal with Minny wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, I’m anticipating Hockenson having success on underneath routes, which is where he does his best work.
Falcons vs Vikings same-game parlay
Vikings moneyline
T.J. Hockenson Over 36.5 receiving yards
Bijan Robinson Over 61.5 rushing yards
The Vikings have won 14 of their past 20 games, and while their defense is beginning to show signs of bursting at the seams, Minny has still allowed the fifth-fewest points per game (18.3) and lowest EPA per play.
Additionally, I value the familiarity the Minnesota coaching staff and defense have with Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Vikings also blitz at a higher clip than any team in the league (38.0%) and rank fourth in pressure percentage (27.0%), and like most QBs, Cousins’ numbers dip considerably when he isn’t throwing from a clean pocket.
He dips from a 7.8 yards per attempt and 71.9 completion percentage to respective 7.3 and 56.1% marks when pressured.
Without question, the Vikings have been particularly stout against the rush, and they lead the NFL in PFF rush defense grade while allowing the fourth-lowest yards per carry (3.76). I'm still confident in the Atlanta offensive line and running back Bijan Robinson, though.
The Falcons rank sixth in PFF run blocking grade, and the second-year rusher has cleared this total in six of the past seven games while averaging 85.7 rushing yards per and 4.8 yards per carry.
Robinson has also topped a 70% snap share in four straight, and I value him posting a rock-solid 3.37 yards after contact per attempt and 34.1 breakaway percentage for the campaign.
I also anticipate the Atlanta brass leaning on the run in an effort to shorten the game and keep the Minny offense on the sidelines.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Falcons vs Vikings odds
Falcons vs Vikings live odds
Falcons vs Vikings opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +4.5 | Minnesota -4.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta +189 | Minnesota -219
- Over/Under: Over 46 | Under 46
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Falcons vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
- While this spread has moved early from an opening Minnesota -4.5 to -5.5, there haven’t been additional adjustments since Tuesday.
- Neither team enters in good form against the number. Atlanta has failed to cover in four of its past six games, and Minnesota is on a 2-4-1 run against the spread.
- There have been multiple small moves to this total at BetMGM. The number opened at 46.5 and dropped to 45.5 on Sunday before returning to 46 Thursday afternoon.
- Atlanta has been an Under machine with an active 7-13 record dating back to last season, and the Falcons have gone Under the number in four straight. Still, I think there’s potential for this to turn into a shootout with Minnesota allowing 49 points across its past two games.
- 56% of Covers Consensus users are backing Minnesota on the spread, while 64% are taking the Over.
Falcons vs Vikings betting trend to know
Hockenson is running routes on 72% of his offensive snaps and being targeted on 24.4% of them. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Vikings.
Falcons vs Vikings game info
| Location: | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-8-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Falcons vs Vikings latest injuries
Falcons vs Vikings weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
