It’s finally here, Week 18, after a long, hard season we’re finally at the wrapping-up stage and there is plenty to sort out ahead of the playoffs. There’s also the added risk of players not suiting up and being rested for the playoffs.
Add that in with players hunting incentives in their contracts and it could make for some interesting performances this weekend. We take a look at three players who are most likely to open the scoring in their games with our NFL picks.
Here are my best three NFL first touchdown scorer picks:
Week 18 first touchdown scorer props
- Davante Adams (+700 at DraftKings)
- Tony Pollard (+400 at Bet365)
- Bucky Irving (+375 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 18 first TD picks
First TD prop bet #1: Davante Adams
Best odds: +700 at DraftKings
The Miami Dolphins face a trip to MetLife on Sunday and we’re “unlikely” to see Tua Tagovailoa, per Mike McDaniels. That hands the initiative to the home team and with this potentially being Aaron Rodgers' last game with the New York Jets, if not the NFL entirely. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about the former MVP in his career, it’s that he is hugely determined to prove people wrong and he’ll be desperate to go out in style.
Who else would Rodgers love to feed more in what could be the final game of his career, than Davante Adams? Adams has had Rodgers’ trust since they were playing together in Green Bay and will be the main target here. He’s scored six touchdowns since being traded to the Jets earlier this season with five touchdowns in his past five games. At +700 you’re getting a huge price on a Rodgers’ favorite opening the scoring.
First TD prop bet #2: Tony Pollard
Best odds: +400 at Bet365
Before we get started, this is potentially the riskiest selection given that Tony Pollard is listed as questionable and it’s been said that he’ll be a game-time decision. He didn’t practice this week, which is usually a huge red flag but we’ve seen Pollard suit up often than not, despite missing a lot of practices down the stretch this season.
The Tennessee Titans face a Houston Texans team who’ll be resting a number of starters, which should mean their talented defense is far easier to attack than usual, great news for Pollard. Pollard scored when the teams met in Week 12 and comes into this game just two touchdowns short of hitting a $200,000 incentive in his contract. With that much money on the line we’re sure to see him play and sure to see the team give him the opportunity to earn that cash.
First TD prop bet #3: Bucky Irving
Best odds: +375 at BetMGM
Our final First TD scorer comes in the New Orleans Saints trip to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are huge 14-point favorites for this game, the biggest spread of the day, and they know that a victory earns them the divisional title. Meanwhile the Saints will be missing Derek Carr again, and we’ve seen how poor that offense is without the former Raider under center.
It seems likely that a Buccaneer opens the scoring but Bucky Irving seems the logical choice. Firstly, because the Saints have been terrible against the run this year, allowing 17 rushing touchdowns to running backs, the most of any team in the league. Then you need to factor in how good Irving has been this year. He’s found the endzone seven times and has really impressed as a fourth-round pick. Last week saw his second 20+ carry game of the season and with the team putting their faith in the running back, so should we, against a weak Saints’ rushing defense.
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