The Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears face off in London in Week 6 of NFL action on Sunday. This is the Jags 12th trip to the UK but my Jaguars vs. Bears predictions don't expect that familiarity to lead to a victory this week.
Kickoff is set for at 9:30 am ET at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and the game will be broadcast on NFL Network.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this clash on Sunday, October 13.
Jaguars vs Bears prediction
My best bet
Bears -1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Jacksonville Jaguars began the year with four straight losses before beating the Colts last week. Trevor Lawrence is coming off his best game of the year but he struggled mightily through the first four weeks, ranking 30th out of 30 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE. There's a good chance he regresses against a stingy Chicago Bears defense that leads the league in dropback EPA.
On the other side of the ball, Chicago's young offense is trending upward after an ugly start to the season. Rookie Caleb Williams is looking more comfortable under center, receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are at full strength, and the offensive line has made major strides ranking 12th in the NFL in pass block win rate and ninth in run block win rate.
The Bears are coming off back-to-back wins and rolled up 424 yards and 36 points against the Panthers last week. While Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Jacksonville hasn't fared much better.
The Jaguars are 32nd in the league in defensive dropback EPA while ranking 31st in pass rush win rate. It hasn't helped that their best corner and top linebacker are on the IR with another LB in Devin Lloyd and slot corner Darnell Savage Jr. questionable.
The Jags are very familiar with playing in London and have a growing fanbase in the UK. However, that perceived travel edge is factored into this line and their arrival has been delayed until late Friday night due to Hurricane Milton. I'll back the team with the far better defense at close to a pick'em here.
Jaguars vs Bears same-game parlay
Bears -1.5
Caleb Williams Over 244.5 passing yards
Over 44.5
Caleb Williams has been showing improvement every week. After looking awful in his first two NFL games he broke out with 363 passing yards against Indianapolis in Week 3. He threw for just 157 yards the following week but he was highly efficient and he posted his best game as a pro last week, completing 20-of-29 passes for 304 yards.
Williams should put up big numbers against a Jags secondary that allows a league-high 287.8 passing yards per game while ranking 30th in opponent passer rating (111.7).
Jacksonville scored 37 points last week and rookie Brian Thomas broke out with five catches for 122 yards. I don't expect Lawrence to play quite as well as he did last week but I also don't think this offense is as bad as it looked at the start of the year. Chicago also has some key injuries in its secondary with safety Jaquan Brisker ruled out and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson doubtful.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jaguars vs Bears odds
Jaguars vs Bears live odds
Jaguars vs Bears opening odds
- Spread: Jacksonville +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Moneyline: Jacksonville +105 | Chicago -125
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Jaguars vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money came in on the Bears moving the spread to -2.5 before buyback on the Jags moved it back to the opening number.
- The lookahead total was at 42.5 but after both teams scored 35+ points last week it re-opened at 44.5.
- The Jags are 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread while the Bears are 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS.
- The Jaguars have gone 6-5 SU and ATS in London and are 3-1 SU and ATS since 2021.
Jaguars vs Bears betting trend to know
The Jags are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games while the Bears are 8-2-2 ATS in their previous 12 contests. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Bears.
Jaguars vs Bears game info
| Location: | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-13, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
Jaguars vs Bears latest injuries
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