The 2-0 Bills welcome the 0-2 Jaguars to Buffalo on Monday Night Football, but my NFL picks will focus in on Josh Allen, who has had a great start to the season and now faces a defense that has struggled to get going this season.
I’ve taken a long look at the Josh Allen odds to find the very best ways for you involved on the Bills’ QB on Monday Night Football this September 23.
Josh Allen MNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Josh Allen Over 228.5 passing yards
(-113 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Josh Allen Over 228.5 passing yards
Khalil Shakir Over 3.5 receptions
Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions
(+347 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Josh Allen MNF prop pick
My best bet
Josh Allen Over 228.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Buffalo Bills have impressed through two weeks of the NFL season, particularly on offense, where they’ve put up 75 points. That puts them as the third-highest scorers in the NFL so far but they are far more likely to last the distance than either team above them (Cardinals and Saints). We know this is a playoff-level team, and this could be the season they finally reach the Super Bowl.
Both games so far have been very different for Josh Allen. In the opening week, he rushed nine times for 39 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals, and completed 18 of 23 passes for 232 yards and two touchdowns.
We then saw him play a very different game in Miami, completing just 13 of 19 throws for 139 yards and a single TD. Interestingly, he only rushed twice, picking up two yards. The Bills leaned hard on James Cook on the ground, who delivered with 78 yards and two TDs while adding another score in the passing game.
Heading into this one, we have to expect the Bills to focus on Allen’s arm to get them the win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are 0-2, but they’ve narrowly lost to the Dolphins and the Browns. The Jaguars have only allowed an average of 103 rushing yards per game, which puts them in the Top 33% of teams in the league. Where they’ve really struggled is against the pass, with only two teams giving up more than the average of 245.5 yards that they have.
The easiest way for the Bills to win here is to prioritize the aerial attack, and it’s something we’ve seen work for them in the past. They faced the Jaguars in Week 5 of last season and they focused on the passing game with Allen completing 27 of 40 throws for 359 yards and two touchdowns.
That game was tied for the highest passing yardage Allen got in the entire season, and given the Jaguars’ struggles against the pass so far, there’s no reason he can’t aim to do that once more.
Josh Allen MNF same-game parlay
Josh Allen Over 228.5 passing yards
Khalil Shakir Over 3.5 receptions
Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions
Khalil Shakir has had a total of eight targets so far this season, catching every single one. He’s averaged 12 yards per reception so far and is clearly somebody that can move the chains for this offense. His usage increased from just three targets in Week 1, to five in Week 2, plus a rushing play. He has Allen’s trust and we should see him find success against the Jaguars.
Next up I’m backing one of the most disappointing players on the Bills’ offense so far this season in Dalton Kincaid, who has found himself being a focus of every defensive scheme they’ve faced so far.
Sean McDermott has said since the opening week that they want to find ways to get Kincaid the ball and we saw an increase from two targets to four last week. With the potential for an increase in passing volume, it makes sense to see him get Over 3.5 receptions for the second week in a row.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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