The Atlanta Falcons will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this evening for a special NFC South showdown on Thursday Night Football.
Despite a shaky history on primetime, my NFL picks for Kirk Cousins odds call for the veteran to shake the blues and air it out against the Bucs on Thursday, October 3.
Kirk Cousins TNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 228.5 passing yards
(-113 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Over 228.5 passing yards
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Under 47.5 first-quarter passing yards
(+571 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Kirk Cousins TNF prop pick
My best bet
Over 228.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a tougher schedule than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has cleared this passing-yard total in each of the past three games.
Tampa Bay is also riddled with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and I’m anticipating Cousins benefiting from a home game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium that’ll feature perfect passing conditions inside the dome.
Additionally, his 7.3 yards per target and 8.1 aDOT are solid marks, with room for improvement to his 72.5 adjusted completion percentage after posting a higher ratio in each of his six seasons with the Vikings.
Of course, the setup will be equally favorable for Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield to continue his strong start to the season.
I’m expecting Tampa Bay to move the football and put points on the board. Mayfield is eighth in adjusted EPA per play and sixth in expected completion percentage through four weeks, and the Bucs are seventh in offensive success rate while averaging a healthy 24.3 points per game.
As a result, the Falcons and Cousins will have to take to the air in a positive game script for the veteran QB to eclipse his passing yards total.
Kirk Cousins TNF same-game parlay
Over 228.5 passing yards
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Under 47.5 first-quarter passing yards
Cousins has only thrown for two scores once through four games to start the season, but he’s also only completed eight of 14 red-zone passes (57.1 Cmp%) and just three have gone for scores. Additionally, despite the respectable 8.1 aDOT, the first-year Falcons QB has also only connected for nine passes over 20 yards — with just one turning into a touchdown.
With the Buccaneers blitzing at the third-highest rate (34.7%), I expect Cousins to capitalize on the aggressive pass rush and connect on multiple chunk plays.
For comparison, if opting to back the Over 47.5 first-quarter passing yards for this SGP, the odds are just +328. Because the totals for the entire game and the first quarter aren’t correlated, the parlay is priced at a much longer number.
The Falcons should be taking a conservative approach to start, leaning heavily on the running game early in this divisional matchup, especially with the short week of preparation.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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