The 6-2 Detroit Lions look to keep rolling as they head to the West Coast to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10 odds. The Lions have won five of their last six games but the Bolts have won four of their previous six contests and will be at home.
NFL odds hit the board on Monday with Detroit at -1.5 and money has come in on the road faves with that spread moving to -2.5 for this clash. Here are my best free NFL picks for Lions vs. Chargers on November 12.
Lions vs Chargers odds
Lions vs Chargers predictions
The Detroit Lions have been on fire by going 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games. Fresh off a bye, they're also getting healthier on offense with Pro Bowl guard Jonah Jackson, center Frank Ragnow, and running back David Montgomery on track to return on Sunday.
One silver lining to the rib injury that has sidelined Montgomery since Week 6 is that first-round RB Jahmyr Gibbs has developed in his absence and exploded for 152 yards in his last game. Having a thunder-and-lightning duo like Montgomery and Gibbs will also open things up for Detroit's efficient passing game.
Jared Goff ranks fourth in the league in passing grade per Pro Football Focus, and while he tends to struggle outdoors and when facing pressure, he has an advantageous matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.
SoFi Stadium has a covered roof and there should be a large contingent of Lions fans in attendance. Detroit's offensive line also does an excellent job in pass protection while the Chargers are below-average in pressure rate.
The Bolts have a mediocre defense that ranks 22nd in the league in EPA and 24th in dropback success. Although they are coming off a couple of strong performances, those came against some terrible offensive teams in the Jets and Bears.
On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles has been underperforming. Justin Herbert is a talented quarterback but he's been inconsistent with his accuracy and it hasn't helped that his second and third-best receivers are injured. The Chargers have also been unable to find balance on offense since their inability to create holes (31st in the league in run-blocking per PFF) has led to just 3.9 yards per rush.
Although you're chasing the line movement at this point in the week, the spread has come down from that key number of 3 which makes this a good play on Detroit.
My best bet: Lions -2.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Lions vs Chargers same-game parlay
Lions -2.5
Jared Goff Over 267.5 passing yards
Keenan Allen Over 6.5 receptions
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Goff has thrown for more than 270 yards in three straight games and the Chargers are last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (286.0). Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson prefers to attack the middle of the field and Goff ranks fifth in the league in EPA/play on throws over the middle according to TruMedia. Meanwhile, the Bolts are third-last EPA/play when defending against throws to that part of the field.
Detroit's defense has made strides this season but the Lions still struggle in the back end, especially at cornerback. That should mean plenty of opportunities for Keenan Allen, who has logged at 7+ catches in five of his last seven games and will get even more targets with the Chargers missing Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer.
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Lions vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis
The line for this game has seen plenty of movement, with the Chargers initially installed as short 1.5-point home faves on the look-ahead line. Money has been steadily pouring in on the road team, with this line moving to a pick'em by the weekend and then opening at Lions -1.5 after the Chargers' latest win on Monday Night Football.
Handle and tickets have continued to be all over the Lions and that line has moved to the key number of -3 by Wednesday before buyback on the Bolts shifted it to -2.5. The Lions are fresh off a bye after beating the Raiders in Week 8 to improve to 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games.
The Chargers are on a short week after beating the Jets 27-6 on Monday night. Despite that lopsided result, the Bolts didn't look good in that contest with their offense generating just 191 yards while their defense benefited from three fumbles.
Lions vs Chargers betting trend to know
The Lions have gone 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Chargers.
Lions vs Chargers game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, November 12, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Lions -1.5, 48.5 O/U |
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