Almost every game in the NFL Week 16 slate provides some sort of consequence to finalizing the playoff picture. We say almost because the Jacksonville Jaguars still must play the Las Vegas Raiders.
Other than that stinker, we’ve got teams chasing the top seed in each conference, teams chasing division crowns, and teams just trying to stay in the playoff picture.
It's time to break down our NFL picks with moneyline odds and selections for every game on the Week 16 schedule.
Week 16 moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Broncos vs  Chargers |
(+125) |
 Texans vs  Chiefs |
(+130) |
 Steelers vs  Ravens |
(+235) |
 Giants vs  Falcons |
(-450) |
 Patriots vs  Bills |
(-1000) |
 Lions vs  Bears |
(-300) |
 Browns vs  Bengals |
(-370) |
 Titans vs  Colts |
(-200) |
 Rams vs  Jets |
(-180) |
 Eagles vs  Commanders |
(-170) |
 Cardinals vs  Panthers |
(-220) |
 Vikings vs  Seahawks |
(+140) |
 Jaguars vs  Raiders |
(-110) |
 49ers vs  Dolphins |
(+100) |
 Buccaneers vs  Cowboys |
(-205) |
 Saints vs  Packers |
(-1000) |
Lines courtesy of bet365 as of 12-18
Expert Week 16 moneyline picks
Broncos vs Chargers
Broncos +125
The Los Angeles Chargers got walloped by the Bucs last week, and, at 8-6, cling to the final Wild Card Berth with Indy, Miami, and Cincinnati, all sitting at 6-8. A loss this week makes things a lot more interesting.
L.A.’s offense has dried up, scoring exactly 17 points in three straight games, and they get a Denver Broncos team that’s put up at least 29 points in four straight wins and is looking for payback from a Week 6 defeat.
Texans vs Chiefs
Texans +130
Unless Patrick Mahomes is 100%, there is no way he should see the field on Saturday. Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs are chasing down the AFC's top seed and need two wins in their final three to get there.
We also know the Houston Texans aren’t the defense you want to mess with if you’re not that mobile. Houston is second in the NFL in sacks per game, and fourth in sack percentage.
Steelers vs Ravens
Steelers +235
It doesn’t look like an ankle injury will sideline TJ Watt in this battle at the top of the NFC North.
This has classic Pittsburgh Steelers bounce-back win written all over it. They were dominated last week in a loss to Philly, while the Baltimore Ravens took the Giants to the woodshed.
Don't forget, the Steelers have taken eight of nine from Baltimore.
Giants vs Falcons
Falcons -450
Kirk Cousins looked A-W-F-U-L on Monday night in the win over the Raiders, so now the Atlanta Falcons pivot to rookie Michael Penix Jr. to start in Week 16 against the New York Giants. It’s a desperate move in a game Atlanta desperately needs to stay in the division chase.
It won’t matter against the G-Men, but this could unravel badly for Atlanta down the stretch.
Patriots vs Bills
Bills -1000
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills' No. 2 scoring offense in the league run laps around the New England Patriots' Bottom-2 scoring output.
Browns vs Bengals
Bengals -370
Only watchable for fantasy purposes, really. The Cincinnati Bengals need a win and a lot of help to find the playoffs. They take care of their end of that bargain this week.
Lions vs Bears
Lions -300
The Detroit Lions are on the verge of watching a dream season careen off the rails. Their defense is patchwork, with three more significant injuries in the showdown loss to the Bills, including RB David Montgomery (knee) being done for the year.
They can outscore these problems against the Chicago Bears, but we’re about to find out how good a coach and motivator Dan Campbell is — he’s got to get them that NFC top seed, or this all falls apart.
Titans vs Colts
Colts -200
Will Levis has put together about five years of bad QB play into 15 weeks, earning a benching ahead of this weekend. Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor runs wild to make up for a gaffe against Denver that sealed their playoff fate a week ago.
Rams vs Jets
Rams -180
The Los Angeles Rams are in the (current) driver’s seat in a bonkers NFC West. They have a young, pliable defense that does enough to support an offense that’s ninth in passing yards.
The New York Jets might have gotten past the Jags, but they’ve got nowhere near the grit to keep up with L.A..
Eagles vs Commanders
Eagles -170
In due time, this is the kind of game Jayden Daniels would put the fear of God into every Philadelphia Eagles fan. Alas, the Washington Commanders have shown to be just ok, as they cling to seven seed in the NFC Wild Card picture.
Philly, meanwhile, is in the NFC driver’s seat chasing down the top seed in the conference. I don’t believe their passing game woes are over, but they don’t need to be in DC. The bottom of the NFC playoff picture meets more chaos. Buckle up.
Cardinals vs Panthers
Cardinals -220
The Arizona Cardinals' roller-coaster campaign continues, and a win over the Carolina Panthers keeps them alive in the West chase.
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Vikings vs Seahawks
Seahawks +140
I wish I believed in Sam Darnold like Kevin O'Connell does.
Alas, even after Monday’s mashing of the Bears, and the Minnesota Vikings sitting eighth in scoring and eighth in passing yards, propped up by a Top-4 scoring defense, I think the letdown is coming.
The Seattle Seahawks laid an egg against Green Bay, but assuming Geno Smith’s knee is ok, they bounce back with a crucial win to keep the NFC West a traffic jam.
Jaguars vs Raiders
Jaguars -110
No television time should be used on Sunday for this.
49ers vs Dolphins
49ers +100
Welcome to the What Could Have Been Bowl, featuring two of the biggest disappointments of the NFL season.
The San Francisco 49ers have just one win in their last five, putting up just 14 points per game in those losses. You know what they’re good at, though? Beating teams with losing records, going 4-0 vs the Jets, Patriots, Cowboys, and Bears this season.
Not good news for the 6-8 Miami Dolphins.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys
Buccaneers -205
The Dallas Cowboys defense has looked spry since Micah Parsons returned, and this one gave me a bit of pause, but I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are good enough to prove oddsmakers right.
The Bucs just whipped the Chargers to earn their fourth straight win and Baker Mayfield is running an offense that ranks fourth in scoring. With Dallas, Vegas, and the Saints left on the slate, they have the inside track to a division crown.
Saints vs Packers
Packers -1000
The New Orleans Saints allow the sixth-most rush yards per game in the NFL, which sets up well for Josh Jacobs and the Green Bay Packers' fourth-ranked run attack.
The Packers lock up a playoff berth and solidify their status as a team no one wants a piece of in the playoffs.
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