The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles hit Corinthians Arena for the first-ever NFL game in Brazil, and with one of the highest totals of the week, we should expect offensive fireworks for Friday Night Football.
Here is a trio of NFL player props to kick-start the weekend and complement this clash between the pair of NFC contenders.
Packers vs Eagles props
- A.J. Brown Over 70.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Luke Musgrave Over 24.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Packers vs Eagles props
Prop bet #1: A.J. Brown Over 70.5 receiving yards
Philadelphia Eagles No. 1 wideout A.J. Brown has racked up 71+ receiving yards in 19 of 34 regular-season games since joining the club, and he’s averaged a monster 8.9 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 86.8 receiving yards per game during the two years. This is also a low yardage total for Brown after closing with an average of 81.1 yards from Week 9 through 16 last season.
The Green Bay Packers didn’t impress against the pass in 2023, either. They allowed the fifth-highest dropback success rate and a healthy 8.31 yards per target to opposing receivers. Ranking a middling 18th in PFF’s coverage grade also isn’t a ringing endorsement. While a healthy Jaire Alexander at cornerback helps, the Green Bay defense will also have inexperienced coordinator Jeff Hafley calling the shots for the first time in the NFL.
The Eagles skidded to a 1-6 finish last season, including their wild-card loss to Tampa Bay with Brown sidelined. I’m expecting him to be the focal point of the passing attack Friday, and quarterback Jalen Hurts to be looking for his go-to receiver early and often to start the 2024 campaign off on the right foot.
Prop bet #2: Luke Musgrave Over 24.5 receiving yards
Packers tight end Luke Musgrave was an immediate fixture in the passing attack as a rookie and hauled in 33 of 45 targets for 341 yards through 10 games before being sidelined with a lacerated kidney. He also ran routes on 247 of 438 offensive snaps while pacing GB tight ends in offensive snap percentage during the stretch.
The busy role allowed Musgrave to record 25 receiving yards or more in eight of those 10 contests, and the 24-year-old only blocked on 8.0% of the passing snaps played for the year. While Musgrave never rebounded and returned to the same production floor in Week 18 or during the playoffs following the injury, he’s had a full offseason to reconnect with quarterback Jordan Love. Additionally, fellow tight end Tucker Kraft missed time with a pectoral tear during the summer.
I’m also expecting this to be a high-scoring game with the total at 48.5, and the Eagles weren’t exactly a nightmare for opposing tight ends in 2023. Philly's defense allowed a healthy 7.59 yards per target and the fourth-highest catch percentage (75.4%) to the position last year.
Prop bet #3: Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 receiving yards
The Eagles offense has consistently utilized its running backs in the passing attack, and Saquon Barkley is the most talented athlete the franchise has had in the backfield in recent years. I expect him to receive three to four targets and turn them into 18-21 yards in Friday’s season opener. Hell, Barkley has the home-run speed and tackle-breaking ability to coast Over this number with a single grab.
Eagles running backs D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell were targeted a healthy 86 times and combined for 69 receptions and 397 receiving yards last season. While Gainwell will still have a role in the offense, Philly didn’t dish out $26 million guaranteed for Barkley to chill on the sidelines. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore also has a track record of involving his backs in the passing game, including Austin Ekeler receiving 74 targets last season with the Chargers.
Green Bay's pass rush was a strength last season with five players recording 10 QB hits, so involving Barkley in the passing game is an easy way to mitigate the pressure. It also sets him up to operate in open space, where he’s toughest to bring down.
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Barkley/Jacobs to combine for 120+ rush yards (was -180, NOW +115!)
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