The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in desperate need of a win when they take on the Carolina Panthers at home on Sunday as they attempt to unseat the Atlanta Falcons atop the NFC South.
With Bryce Young’s improved play as of late, I expect Carolina to keep this game close and cause Tampa Bay to put a lot on Baker Mayfield’s plate in my Panthers vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, December 29.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, with the game airing on CBS.
Panthers vs Buccaneers prediction
Panthers vs Buccaneers spread prediction
While Carolina isn’t winning many games, the difference in the team's competitiveness from the start of the season to now is stark. Despite a lowly 4-11 record, the Panthers have been a completely different team since Young was inserted back into the starting lineup.
Dave Canales’ squad was just 1-6 ATS during Young’s first stint as the starter and Andy Dalton’s short stay as QB1. However, the team is 6-2 ATS since Young returned as the starter in Week 8, that includes the Panthers going 5-0 as an underdog since Week 9. Meanwhile, Tampa is 3-3 as a favorite since Week 3.
Panthers vs Buccaneers moneyline prediction
Although I believe Carolina will cover as an 8-point underdog, I have the Buccaneers coming out on top. The Panthers simply don’t have the pass catchers to pull this win out against a Tampa team that’s still playing for a chance to win the division.
This is an offense that’s seventh in the NFL in EPA per play while Carolina’s defense is just 31st in EPA per play. Young and Chuba Hubbard can keep the Panthers in this late, but there’s just not enough firepower to pull out the win.
Panthers vs Buccaneers Over/Under prediction
Between Carolina’s improved play on offense and it’s defense being among the worst in the NFL, this Over is in good shape. Since Young was renamed starter, the Panthers are 6-2 betting the Over. During that stretch, their defense has given up 26-plus points in five games - that includes when these two teams hit the Over in Week 13. It also helps that Tampa is among the best Over teams in the NFL and has hit it in nine of its last 12 games.
My best bet
Baker Mayfield Over 243.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
A lot has changed since Baker Mayfield started a handful of games for the Carolina Panthers two years ago. He’s now entrenched as franchise QB for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the team has relied on him to play hero ball for much of the season to keep them in the NFC South race while dealing with a plethora of injuries.
That’s why he’s third in the NFL in passing yards per game this season (261.3) and poised to easily surpass this line against Carolina. It’s actually surprising to see this prop set so low given Mayfield has gone Over 243.5 passing yards nine times this season.
That includes hitting 288-plus passing yards four times in his last five games while averaging 283 passing yards over that stretch. Of course, the one game he didn’t hit in during those five outings was the OT win over the Panthers.
But that shouldn’t be dragging his line down that significantly, so it’s a great value to back Mayfield hitting the Over this time around. Carolina is 30th in EPA per dropback on defense this season and Buccaneers OC Liam Coen will want to take advantage with the way his QB is playing.
Mayfield is ninth in the NFL in EPA per play among QBs and seventh in success rate. The former Heisman winner has been dealing and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue on Sunday.
Panthers vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Baker Mayfield Over 243.5 passing yards
Jalen McMillan Over 40.5 receiving yards
Chuba Hubbard anytime TD scorer
If Baker Mayfield’s going to be racking up the passing yards, that means Jalen McMillan will likely be heavily involved. The rookie has filled in admirably for Chris Godwin and has crossed 40.5 receiving yards in three straight games while going over 1.30 yards per route run in each game, per PFF.
For Carolina to keep up with Tampa’s passing attack, Dave Canales will want to lean on his bell cow in Chuba Hubbard. The Canadian is top 10 in rushing yards after contact (865), missed tackles forced (50), and 15-plus-yard runs this season (15). That should help him find the end zone for the 12th time this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Panthers vs Buccaneers odds
Panthers vs Buccaneers live odds
Panthers vs Buccaneers opening odds
- Spread: Carolina +7.5 | Tampa Bay -7.5
- Moneyline: Carolina +310 | Tampa Bay -400
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Panthers vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Buccaneers opened between 7.5 and 8.5-point favorites with the line seeing minimal movement at most books.
- Tampa Bay is 9-6 ATS this season while Carolina is 7-8, but the Panthers have covered in six of their last seven.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 47.5 with most books slowly moving up to 48.5.
- Both the Buccaneers and Panthers are among the best Over bets in the NFL with the Buccaneers 10-5 and the Panthers 11-4.
- 57% of Covers Consensus users are backing Carolina on the spread, while 64% are taking the Over.
Panthers vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
The Carolina Panthers have hit the game total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Buccaneers. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Buccaneers.
Panthers vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
CBS
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