The New England Patriots head to Empower Field at Mile High to face the Denver Broncos in the latest Sunday Night Football odds.
When Santa and his sleigh swing by Denver this Christmas Eve, the struggling Patriots will be hoping he drops off a franchise quarterback in next year's draft, while the 7-7 Broncos have visions of the playoffs dancing in their heads.
Week 16 odds have the Broncos installed as 7-point home favorites, with the Over/Under listed at 35.5 for this Sunday Night Football clash. Here are my best free NFL picks for Patriots vs. Broncos on December 24.
You can also check out our SNF player prop picks and Russell Wilson prop picks for more great bets!
Patriots vs Broncos odds
Patriots vs Broncos predictions
While there isn't expected to be any snowfall during the game and winds shouldn't be extreme, temperatures will still be well below freezing on Sunday. A cold weather Christmas Eve game in the Mile High City sounds like a recipe for plenty of running by both sides.
The Denver Broncos already run the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the league and they could lean on their ground game even more in this one. That plays right into the hands of a New England Patriots stop unit that leads the NFL in defensive rush EPA and success rate.
The Patriots are fresh off a match where they allowed 27 points to the Chiefs. However, it's worth noting that they faced the almost unstoppable Patrick Mahomes and managed to limit KC to just 43 rushing yards on 20 carries.
Prior to that clash with the Chiefs, they hadn't allowed more than 20 points in each of their previous five contests, limiting foes to just 12.8 points per game during that span.
The Broncos have been held to 17 points in two of their last three games, despite facing subpar defenses during that span.
Denver is 22nd in the league in red zone conversion rate and 20th in third-down percentage, which is bad news against a Pats defense that ranks sixth in the league in red zone defense and does a good job of forcing third and long situations.
Despite losing key players like Matthew Judon, Christian Gonzalez, and Marcus Jones to long-term injuries, New England's stop unit has remained stout and holds opponents to just 4.8 yards per play — the fifth-lowest number in the league.
While the future of coach Bill Belichick is cloudy, I don't doubt that he can still scheme something up to limit an inconsistent Denver offense in a cold weather game. Take the Under on Denver's team total.
My best bet: Broncos team total Under 21.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Patriots vs Broncos same-game parlay
Broncos team total Under 21.5
Courtland Sutton Over 53.5 receiving yards
Ezekiel Elliott to record 4+ receptions
While I don't expect the Broncos offense to light up the scoreboard, I do expect Courtland Sutton to go Over his modest receiving yards total. Sutton has racked up 60+ receiving yards in five consecutive games and is coming off a 71-yard performance against the Lions.
Sutton has easily been Russell Wilson's most reliable receiver, especially with Jerry Jeudy's mental miscues in recent weeks. In addition, the Pats play man at the seventh-highest rate in the league and Jeudy has a low 13.5% target rate against man coverage, while Sutton's target rate jumps up to 21%. Expect Wilson to be throwing in Sutton's direction an awful lot in this one.
Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a contest where he was held to just 25 yards on 11 carries against the Chiefs. However, he still had five catches in that contest and in Week 14 he hauled in seven of eight targets for 72 receiving yards against the Steelers.
The Pats love to use their running backs as pass-catching options, and with Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out for the third-straight game, Elliott will be in line for another big workload. This is especially true against a Broncos defense that ranks 26th in the league with 5.4 receptions allowed per game to opposing running backs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
FanDuel Sunday Night Football bonuses
Sign Up Offer
Create a new account and bet $5 on a moneyline wager — get $150 in bonus bets if your team wins!
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Patriots vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis
The total for this game opened at 36.5, and with early weather reports projecting snow and heavy winds, the total was immediately bet down to 34. As of Friday, those weather reports have eased up, with clear skies and relatively mild winds now expected for Sunday, leading to the total ticking back up to 35.5.
The spread opened with the Broncos at -5.5 and money has come in on them, with the line moving to Broncos -6.5 or that key number of -7 by Friday.
The Broncos are coming off an ugly 42-17 road loss to the Lions. That said, they are still 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread in their last eight games and are now in the playoff picture after an ugly start to their season.
The Patriots are just 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS this year but they have managed to cover the spread in their last two games, beating the Steelers in Week 14 before backdoor covering as 10.6-point dogs against the Chiefs last week. While the Pats have been competitive on defense, they've been terrible on offense and rank last in the league in scoring with 13.3 ppg.
Patriots vs Broncos betting trend to know
The Under is 7-2 in Denver's last nine games while going 9-4 in New England's previous 13 contests. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Broncos.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Patriots vs Broncos game info
| Location: | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Sunday, December 24, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Broncos -5.5, 36.5 O/U |
Patriots vs Broncos latest injuries
Patriots vs Broncos weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
🕒Vermont: Sports betting is coming!🕒
Vermont sports betting will launch on January 11 — but you can pre-register now with FanDuel and DraftKings!
Check out the best Vermont sports betting apps (as more brands launch in the Green Mountain State), as well as the best Vermont sportsbook promos!
21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
