The New England Patriots head south to face the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East tilt at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, November 24.
A home win over New England is up next for a Miami postseason push, and my top Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions and NFL picks are expecting the Fins and wide receiver Tyreek Hill to show up in this divisional clash.
Patriots vs Dolphins prediction
My best bet
Tyreek Hill Over 61.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
There has been a lot of movement in the receiving yards market for Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill. He opened at a 66.5 total and moved to 67.5 at BetMGM before dropping all the way to 61.5 early Friday afternoon.
It’s an overreaction, and it’s also his lowest total of the season with Dolphins No. 1 quarterback Tua Tagovailoa starting.
Additionally, Hill going Under the number in this market in seven of 10 games is another reason I think we’re landing a favorable number because the New England Patriots send out a weak pass defense. Plus, for comparison, Hill traded at a 99.5 receiving yards total in Week 1 and a 90.5 mark in Week 2.
The Pats have surrendered the fourth-highest EPA per dropback and rank 23rd in PFF pass grade while also allowing the 10th-highest yards per target to opposing wide receivers. I also value New England generating pressure on just 19.8% of dropbacks (10th least).
Of course, Hill also went for 69 receiving yards on six receptions and 10 targets with backup QB Tyler Huntley under center against New England in Week 5, and he has had consecutive monster showing against the Pats at home the past two years.
Hill caught eight of 12 targets for 94 yards in Week 1 in 2022 and was even better with eight catches for 112 yards on 13 targets last season.
Patriots vs Dolphins same-game parlay
Dolphins -7.5
Tyreek Hill Over 61.5 receiving yards
Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ rushing yards
There is way more on the line this week for the Dolphins, and I’m expecting them to show off on both sides of the ball with a commanding home win. Starting with the stop unit, Miami has surrendered just 34 points over the past two weeks while allowing the seventh-lowest EPA per play.
On offense, the Dolphins have generated the third-highest EPA per play since Tagovailoa's return in Week 8, and he's connected on 77.7% of his passes for a respectable 7.4 YPA while leading Miami to an average of 27.8 points per game.
Turning to the Pats, I’m anticipating New England remaining committed to the run and leaning on rusher Rhamondre Stevenson to churn the offense along and keep the clock ticking.
Stevenson has ran for 147 yards over the past two games with 20 carries in each, and while his 3.7 yards per tote is nothing to write home about, his role as the clear No. 1 RB isn’t in doubt.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Patriots vs Dolphins odds
Patriots vs Dolphins live odds
Patriots vs Dolphins opening odds
- Spread: New England +7.5 | Miami -7.5
- Moneyline: New England +300 | Miami -375
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Patriots vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dolphins opened as a -7.5 favorite at BetMGM, and the shop tested a -7 spread earlier this week before returning to the opening -7.5 margin Wednesday afternoon.
- Miami has covered the number in nine of the past 10 meetings between the AFC East foes, including winning outright eight times. The Dolphins were also an underdog in half those meetings.
- This total has climbed from an opening 44.5 at BetMGM to 46.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- The Over has only hit in three of the past 10 between these two teams, but Miami has gone Over the number in three of four games since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8.
Patriots vs Dolphins betting trend to know
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill has recorded an average of 74 receiving yards through five games against the New England Patriots since the beginning of the 2022 season. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Dolphins.
Patriots vs Dolphins game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-24-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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