It was a rough run for NFL underdogs in Week 5, as point-spread pups finished 4-10 ATS overall following a hot 56% start to 2024.
As we roll into Week 6 and beyond, the power of points diminishes. I pinpointed this swing in market value for pups in last week’s column, with underdogs covering at a 55% clip in September over the past 10 seasons before dropping to 50.6% from Week 5 onward.
Two of those favorites that covered the spread in Week 5 started the week as underdogs, with Miami (+1.5 to -2) and Houston (+1 to -1.5) jumping the fence and coming through as short chalk.
We’ve got another one of these games teetering on a pick’em in Week 6, with the Tennessee Titans opening as 1-point home favorites hosting the Indianapolis Colts, but now sitting at +1.5 as of Tuesday morning. More on that game below.
Trends come and trends go, but getting the best number for your opinion is a timeless classic, on par with the “little black dress” and white-on-white Air Force 1s.
I go shopping for those stylish spreads with my best NFL picks for Week 6.
Last week 2-1 ATS
Season: 9-6 ATS
NFL Week 6 picks and predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+1.5) pick
My pick: Tennessee Titans +1.5 -110
(-110 at FanDuel)
As mentioned above, the Tennessee Titans opened as small home favorites but are now listed at +1.5 — a move that seems to coincide with the Indianapolis Colts’ quarterback questions.
Indianapolis played without QB1 Anthony Richardson last week due to an oblique injury, leaning on ageless veteran Joe Flacco to hold down the fort. All Flacco did was throw for 359 yards and three touchdowns in a nail-biting loss at Jacksonville.
Despite that effort from the backup, Colts head coach Shane Steichen pledged his loyalty to Richardson and his role as starter, with the second-year QB questionable for Week 6.
While I’d much rather see the mistake-prone Richardson under center than Flacco, the Tennessee defense will have its way with either QB as the Colts' pass protection is in bad shape (Will Fries IR, Ryan Kelly questionable). Coming off a bye in Week 5, the Titans quietly boast one of the finest defenses in the league.
Heading in Week 6, Tennessee sits No. 5 in EPA allowed per play, No. 1 in success rate against, and No. 9 in Defensive DVOA — the holy triad of advanced analytics.
The Titans also bear down at key moments and do the little things, ranking second in third-down defense, seventh in touchdown percentage in the red zone, and tied for the third-fewest defensive penalties.
Offensively, it sounds like QB Will Levis will be good to go, according to head coach Brian Callahan, who told reporters Levis would practice Wednesday after suffering a shoulder sprain in Week 4 and having two weeks to recover.
The Titans have been stifled on offense but due to their own doing, with six interceptions and three fumbles stunting the progress of a revamped roster with plenty of playmakers.
That group faces an Indianapolis defense that was lit up by the Jaguars last weekend and pales in comparison to past foes like Chicago, New York, and Green Bay — all of which rank Top 11 in EPA allowed per play and bring a ton of pressure. The Colts sit 20th in that metric and are nowhere near as disruptive.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (+3.5) pick
My pick: New York Giants +3.5 -115
(-115 at FanDuel)
As we get further into the schedule, you can start to discount early-season results a little bit. Take the New York Giants for example.
New York left a bad taste in the mouths of NFL bettors in Week 1 when it was piledriven by Minnesota 28-3, in what was an ugly effort on both sides of the ball. However, that may not seem like such a bad loss considering what we now know about the Vikings.
If we ignore that opening result and focus on New York’s forward progress, we see a team playing some very strong two-way football in recent weeks.
Over the last three games, in which the G-Men are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, the defense ranks among the elite stop units in the land... and the offense, to the surprise of many, is right there with them.
Entering Week 6, QB Daniel Jones is sitting inside the Top 10 in several advanced passing metrics during this span, and the Cincinnati Bengals defense allows a success rate of 50.6% per snap and a league-high 25.3 first downs per game over the past three weeks. The Bengals' defense is declawed, with a passive pressure rate (17.8%) and sloppy tackling (44 missed) leading to one of the worst third-down defenses out there.
The Giants looked very efficient in Week 5, marching up and down the field against a Seahawks defense many considered a top unit in the land. If not for a goal-line fumble on their opening drive, the G-Men would rank even higher on offense.
Even more impressive was that Jones & Co. did so without their two best weapons, as rookie WR Malik Nabers and RB Devin Singletary sat out the trip to Seattle. There’s a good chance both guys are back for Sunday Night Football.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+2.5) pick
My pick: New York Jets +2.5
(-101 at Pinnacle)
When I was originally researching my NFL Week 6 picks and predictions, I had the New York Jets at +3 for this AFC East encounter on Monday night. Then New York went and showed head coach Robert Saleh the door, and those field goal spreads disappeared.
If that move through the key number tells you anything, it’s that firing Saleh was a positive decision — at least in the eyes of the betting markets. It is, at the very least, a removal of friction as Saleh and veteran QB Aaron Rodgers weren’t on the same page.
The firing of a head coach often can spark teams, and Rodgers and the offense will have a lot to prove in Week 6 after another dud in the loss to Minnesota in London last weekend. But for me, it’s all about this Jets defense taking on a Buffalo Bills team coming back to earth after a hot start.
The Bills beat up some bad teams in the first three games, scoring 31, 34, and 47 points versus Arizona, Miami, and Jacksonville. Those stop units sit 25th, 27th, and 32nd in defensive DVOA on the season. The curtain has since been pulled back on Buffalo in the last two games.
Baltimore ran up and down the Bills in Week 4, checking Josh Allen and the offense to only 10 points on 236 total yards. Last Sunday, Houston held the Bills to 16 points, sending them on a two-game tumble.
Statistically, New York is the toughest stop unit Buffalo has played. The Jets rank No. 6 in EPA allowed per play, No. 11 in DVOA, and are getting after QBs for 18 sacks behind the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league (29.9%) — and doing so with just the front four.
Buffalo QB Josh Allen has not looked good the last two outings (completing only 25 of 59 attempts) and limps into what will be his third straight road game on a bum ankle.
Allen is one of the better passers at burning the blitz (which is something New York doesn’t do much) but sees his ratings dip when under pressure (54.7 PFF rating). He wasn’t sharp versus the Jets last season, with QB ratings of 56.7 and 56.2 in two meetings, along with a collective 49-for-73 passing output (67%).
Not intended for use in MA.
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