Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Short Slate, Plenty of Value

Prop bet #1: Calling on Carter

The Detroit Red Wings allow the seventh-most shots (32.15) and eighth-most attempts (63.85) per 60 minutes and are a 5-on-5 mess with a 29th-ranked 45.5 Corsi For percentage. So, this matchup sets up nicely for the Florida Panthers and winger Carter Verhaeghe, especially after he registered five shots on 12 attempts last time out.

Verhaeghe had seen a dip in shot volume across the previous 10 games, and he only cleared this 3.5-shot total once. Part of the explanation for the downtick was Verhaeghe only converted 42.9% of his attempts into shots compared to 50% of attempts through his first 32 games of the season. 

I also value the Carter Verhaeghe odds because of his excellent possession numbers, and the 5-on-5 advantage he and the Panthers have over the Red Wings. Verhaeghe has a high-end 57.7 CF%, and he’s clicked with linemates Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk for an even better 59.4 mark dating back to last season.

Carter Verhaeghe prop: Over 3.5 shots (-105 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Bounce-back Bob

This is a bounce-back spot for the Panthers and No. 1 goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. The Cats have lost two straight, including Bobrovsky allowing three goals on just 21 shots during Thursday’s loss to the Los Angeles Kings. He’s responded following his past two losses in winning fashion while allowing just three goals on 64 shots for a .953 save percentage.

Additionally, while the Red Wings aren’t a strong 5-on-5 possession team, with a 45.5 Corsi For percentage, they average 29.4 shots per game. It’s good for only 24th in the league, but it’s still enough shot volume to clear this 23.5-save total as long as Bobrovsky is sharp.

With Florida a sizable home favorable, Detroit will likely find itself trailing at times tonight. The Red Wings climb from 29.07 shots and 56.22 attempts per 60 minutes to 32.93 and 66.22 marks when behind, so game flow should also be on our side.

Finally, I am also targeting these Sergei Bobrovsky odds because he’s had a saves total of 24.5 or higher in each of his past 10 games. Other sportsbooks have the Over 23.5 carrying a higher vig than the -115 through Bet99, including Caesars with the Over listed at -125.

Sergei Bobrovsky prop: Over 23.5 saves (-115 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Compher compromised vs. Cats

The Panthers remain an elite defensive club, and they check out No. 1 in my defense rating. Florida ranks second in Corsi For percentage (55.1%) while allowing the fourth-fewest goals (2.07) and expected goals (2.31) per 60 minutes at five-on-five. This is a nightmare road matchup for Red Wings forward J.T. Compher.

Compher has missed the scoresheet in five straight and nine of 14 since returning from an undisclosed injury on December 16. He’ll also be without winger Patrick Kane (lower body) for Wednesday’s game, and it’ll be Christian Fischer joining Compher and Alex DeBrincat at even strength. It’s a notable downgrade with Fischer registering just 1.24 points per 60 at 5-on-5 compared to Kane’s team-leading 2.87 mark.

Compher’s 43.1 CF% at 5-on-5 is also a red flag, and Fischer sports a 43.7% mark. Additionally, the trio has hardly played together this season with just 1:48 of shared ice time. My numbers show value in these J.T. Compher odds.

J.T. Compher prop: Under 0.5 points (-125 at Bet99)