Week 1 in the NFL features an intriguing AFC West matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers.
These teams faced off in Week 18 last season with the Raiders clinching a playoff spot in a 35-32 thriller and sending the Bolts to the golf links. The Raiders kicked a field goal with time expiring in overtime instead of settling for a tie, which would have resulted in both teams making the postseason.
With the young and hungry Chargers heavily motivated for this rematch, here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Raiders vs. Chargers on September 10.
Raiders vs Chargers best odds
Raiders vs Chargers picks and predictions
The Over/Under on Josh Jacobs' rushing yards for Week 1 is set at 49.5, which is pretty low when you consider the situation he's in. Sure, Jacobs has regressed statistically in each of the last two years since his impressive rookie campaign. And yes, the Raiders' refusal to exercise his fifth-year option is a good indication that management isn't sold on him long-term.
However, there isn't much competition for touches in the Vegas backfield. The Bolts' run defense still looks porous and Jacobs also played well towards the end of last year.
The Raiders drafted Zamir White in the fourth round but he won't have much of a role early in the season since he's penciled in as the fourth-string running back. Backups Brandon Bolden and Ameer Adbullah aren't going to cut into Jacobs' workload too much either, especially since they don't have his tackle-breaking ability.
While the Chargers added a couple of massive defensive linemen in free agency, their biggest problem was in the second level and their linebacker crew remains subpar. I'm not sure they've improved much from the unit that surrendered 138.9 rushing yards per game last season on an average of 4.6 yards per carry.
Jacobs rushed for at least 52 yards in seven of his last eight games last season, averaging 77.8 ypg over that span and trampling the Bolts for a season-high 132 yards in Week 18.
My best bet: Josh Jacobs Over 49.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 NFL season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022.
Raiders vs Chargers betting preview
Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Chargers just missed out on the playoffs last year but they're gunning for the Super Bowl after spending big in the offseason. Franchise quarterback Justin Herbert should be in line for another big year after throwing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns as a sophomore last year.
He's surrounded by plenty of weapons as the Bolts added tight end Gerald Everett in the offseason and re-signed No. 2 wide receiver Mike Williams, who will complement Pro Bowl wideout Keenan Allen. This will also help take the pressure off dynamic running back Austin Ekeler.
The Chargers needed to improve on defense, especially against the run where they finished last year 30th in the league in defensive rush DVOA. To that end, they signed a pair of big bodies on the line in Austin Johnson and Sebastian Joseph-Day.
Their pass defense should also be better after trading for edge rusher Khalil Mack to bookend Joey Bosa, while signing cornerback J.C. Jackson to a massive 82.5-million dollar contract.
Jackson is listed as doubtful on Sunday due to an ankle injury and that's good news for the Raiders' biggest offseason addition: All-Pro wideout Davante Adams.
Adams has totaled 2,927 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns over the last two seasons and he'll give Derek Carr an elite target on the outside, in addition to explosive tight end Darren Waller and reliable slot receiver Hunter Renfrow.
On defense, the Raiders will look somewhat similar to the Bolts. They added an aging but still highly productive pass rusher Chandler Jones to compliment Pro Bowl edge Maxx Crosby, and they also have a solid pair of young safeties.
However, there are major holes when it comes to their interior defensive line and linebackers, while their cornerbacks need to play much better as well.
Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under of 52.5 is currently the second-highest on the NFL betting board for Week 1 but it makes plenty of sense when you look at the makeup of both teams. The Chargers were fifth in the NFL in scoring last year (27.9 points per game), while ranking fourth in the league in DVOA offense.
The Bolts also played at the fastest pace in the league under first-year head coach Brandon Staley and new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. They might be even more potent this season with the addition of Everett while Herbert and left tackle Rashawn Slater will have another year of experience under their belt.
The Raiders' offense wasn't quite as productive as the Chargers last season but put up some big numbers when Waller was healthy, and Adams is the type of elite talent that can take them to the next level.
Meanwhile, both defenses struggled last season with LA ranking 29th in the league in scoring defense (27 ppg allowed) and Las Vegas 26th (25.8 ppg). Although both teams will have a better pass rush with the additions of Mack and Jones, there are still too many question marks at other spots.
Raiders vs Chargers game info
• Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Raiders vs Chargers key injuries
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Raiders vs Chargers weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Raiders vs Chargers betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the Chargers' last six games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Chargers.
