Raiders vs Chiefs Predictions and Picks for Week 13

The NFL’s version of Thanksgiving leftovers is a standalone Friday matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Las Vegas is expected to have Aidan O’Connell back under center, which has my Raiders vs. Chiefs predictions eyeing up rookie tight end Brock Bowers.

I dissect the spread, total, and props for this AFC West war and give my best NFL picks for this Friday affair below. 

Raiders vs Chiefs prediction

My best bet
Brock Bowers Over 6.5 receptions (-106 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Brock Bowers is having a fantastic rookie season in Sin City and has been at his best when Aidan O’Connell is taking snaps.

O’Connell, who was out with a broken thumb, is expected to be under center for the first time since October 20 when the Las Vegas Raiders head to Arrowhead Stadium on Friday. He’s played in only four games for the Raiders in 2024, and Bowers has been at his busiest with AOC making throws.

In O’Connell’s last three starts — spanning Weeks 5 through 7 — Bowers drew 12, 10, and 14 targets, panning out to eight, nine, and 10 receptions. That’s a significant spike in involvement compared to his targets/receptions before and after O’Connell was at QB.

Bowers is on the field for almost every offensive snap (second most on the team) and has also benefitted from the change at offensive coordinator, with the Raiders firing OC Luke Getsy and handing the keys to Scott Turner the past two weeks. 

Las Vegas has been much more aggressive under Turner, and Bowers has seen 16 and 10 balls his way for 13 and four receptions in losses to the Dolphins and Broncos (with Gardner Minshew at QB). Given the big spread for Week 13, the Silver and Black will be playing from behind which means plenty of passing from AOC and this offense.

The matchup also sets up for a busy day from Bowers, taking on a Kansas City Chiefs defense that’s been beaten up by tight ends. 

Kansas City has allowed the most yardage and the second-most receptions to TEs this season. Bowers caught five of five targets his way against KC in Week 8 — the game immediately following O’Connell’s thumb injury.

Not all Week 13 player projections are as giddy about Bowers’ receptions as I am, with some models short of five catches. However, most forecasts come in at 6+ catches, with one projection at 6.6 receptions.

Raiders vs Chiefs same-game parlay

Brock Bowers 7+ receptions

Jakobi Meyers 6+ receptions

Chiefs moneyline

+329 at FanDuel

Bowers is happy to have AOC back and faces a Chiefs defense giving it up to rival tight ends.

Under new playcaller Scott Turner, the Raiders are chucking it, and player projections are very positive for Meyers, who had 10 receptions last week.

We’ll pour a little sugar on this parlay with the Chiefs to win outright. Kansas City has had trouble covering bigger spreads, so we'll avoid the points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Raiders vs Chiefs odds

Raiders vs Chiefs live odds

Raiders vs Chiefs opening odds

• Spread: Las Vegas +13.5 | Kansas City -13.5
• Moneyline: Las Vegas +550 | Kansas City -800
• Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel.

Raiders vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis

• Kansas City opened as a 13.5-point home chalk for this Friday game and has come down to -12.5 with some interest in the Raiders. Covers Consensus shows 55% of spread picks taking the points with Las Vegas.
  
  
• The Over/Under hit the board at 42.5 points and has remained there for the most part. Covers Consensus shows 68% of picks taking the Over.
  
  
• This short week puts Kansas City in a schedule squeeze, with the Chiefs playing five games in a 25-day window, thanks to their Monday night matchup with Tampa Bay back in Week 9.

Raiders vs Chiefs betting trend to know

The Chiefs are 18-2 SU but just 8-11-1 ATS (42.5%) when giving more than a touchdown in a divisional game since 2018 (when Patrick Mahomes took over as QB1). Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs.

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