The Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints both find themselves out of playoff contention as we hit the penultimate week of the regular season, and now with two key members of the Saints offense missing, Sunday’s game in New Orleans has become a tough one to call.
Our Raiders vs. Saints predictions will focus on the recent performance of both secondaries, which should throw both offenses for a loop as they desperately look for a turnaround. Read below for my free NFL picks for Sunday, December 29.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, with the game airing on FOX.
Raiders vs Saints prediction
Raiders vs Saints moneyline prediction
I’m inclined to believe in what oddsmakers are seeing here after flipping this line in favor of the Raiders. Their secondary has taken a noticeable step forward in recent weeks, and this team not only ranks 12th in win rate at the line of scrimmage against the run but fifth in win rate when rushing the passer.
Without Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara, this defense should have its way. While the offensive side of things has certainly been an adventure for Las Vegas, we can at least be sure that Aidan O’Connell will have his full complement of weapons in the passing game — and he’ll enter a rare spot as the better of the two passers.
Give me the Raiders.
My best bet
Under 37.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Much like last season, the Las Vegas Raiders have turned things up defensively in the second half of the season and ultimately have run out of time to make a sizable impact on the team’s record. The issue is that things have grown even murkier for their offense, which has somehow taken a step back from an already-brutal position.
That’s what generally happens when you operate in a quarterback carousel like this, and even though Aidan O’Connell has appeared to be the most competent passer on the team, they’ve ranked just 25th in Success Rate when passing the ball over the last five weeks after sitting right around the middle of the league to that point.
The issue is that this team has had no choice but to throw the ball with the run game giving it nothing, and that in chorus with plenty of time trailing their opponents has kept the Raiders in the top 10 in early-down passing rate.
New Orleans Saints may be out of the running for a playoff spot, but it remains one of the better secondaries around with an eighth-place showing in EPA per dropback allowed this year. This has dipped only marginally in the last five weeks by a fraction of a percentage point.
I don’t expect O’Connell to have much fun throwing against the Saints, but there’s just as much uncertainty about New Orleans’ ability to pass here on account of the Raiders’ excellence against the pass in recent weeks and mounting injuries to compound potential issues.
The Saints won’t have Derek Carr or Alvin Kamara here, which should just about put the nail in the coffin for an offense which was shut out last week in Green Bay and has failed to sore more than 19 points in four straight. I realize this number is already low, but we’ve got to play the Under.
Raiders vs Saints same-game parlay
Under 37.5
Spencer Rattler Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
Alexander Mattison Over 44.5 rushing yards
This is going to go against everything I said above, but with damning trends we can often find good discounts.
Spencer Rattler has thrown just two passing touchdowns in five games, something that should change here. The Raiders have still allowed the seventh-most scores per game despite their uptick in performance, but they’ve allowed fewer than one rushing touchdown per game which is just outside the top 10. I do expect the ball to move downfield on a suspect unit against the run, which should open the door for this trend to do us some good.
Then, I’ll back Alexander Mattison – the more trusted of Las Vegas’ two backs, to notch 45 yards. The Raiders may be throwing a ton, but they could be influenced to run here on a defense that is 30th in Success Rate against the run over the last five weeks and second-worst in rushing DVOA this year. It’s not an objectionable number, and Mattison has been the harder of the two runners over the last few games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Raiders vs Saints odds
Raiders vs Saints live odds
Raiders vs Saints opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans -2.5
- Moneyline: New Orleans -135
- Over/Under: Over 40 | Under 40
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Raiders vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line flipped on Tuesday as the Raiders became slim one-point favorites, and we haven’t seen any further movement since then.
- The total has slowly made its way down 2.5 points from the opening line, dropping from 38.5 to 37.5 on Tuesday, but like the spread, we haven’t seen any movement since then.
- 57% of Covers Consensus users are backing Las Vegas on the spread, while 51% are taking the Under.
Raiders vs Saints betting trend to know
The New Orleans Saints have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.65 Units / 15% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Saints.
Raiders vs Saints game info
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Raiders vs Saints latest injuries
Raiders vs Saints weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
