A pair of teams in the midst of incredibly disappointing lost seasons will meet Monday night as the Los Angeles Rams take on the Green Packers in what could be the coldest game of the week.
With injuries ravaging the Rams, some modest Overs are showing decent value, especially considering the possible game script.
Here are my NFL player props for Monday Night Football’s battle between the Rams and Packers.
Rams vs Packers props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Rams vs Packers MNF props
The best ability is availability
I already mentioned this Over on our BLITZ projections, but Tutu Atwell has a lot of things in his favor this week.
Atwell's role has expanded with all of the injuries to the Rams receivers, and the speedy wideout has been taking advantage of it over the last two games. He has 14 targets over that stretch and has at least 48 yards in three of his last four contests.
He played a season-high 61% of the snaps in Week 14 and led the Rams in targets with nine. The 23-year-old could see plenty of opportunities to keep the production up with the Rams coming in as 7-point dogs vs. a defense that gives up the fourth-most explosive plays.
Atwell has also been racking up long receptions, as three of his 11 catches on the season have gone for 30-plus yards. His 17.4 air yards per reception ranks as the best mark in football amongst receivers with at least 10 catches.
There are also reports that Atwell is putting in even more prep work behind closed doors as he is trying to make an impact with his new role.
Baker Mayfield looked somewhat competent in this offense and looked Atwell’s way often last week. THE BLITZ is projecting 39.42 receiving yards on Monday night.
Tutu Atwell Prop: Over 28.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
On all the time
Looking at the other Rams receiver, Ben Skowronek played 100% of the snaps last week and has been on the field for all but two snaps over the last two games He set season-highs in catches (seven) and yards (89) vs. the Raiders last week and was instrumental in the team’s final two drives.
This week, his reception total is set at 2.5 and just -135 to the Over. Green Bay might have a Top-10 DVOA pass defense, but it also allows completions at a Bottom-10 rate.
This is also a Los Angeles offense that ranks 30th in success rate with the run since Week 8. This could create more work for the passing game if the Rams find themselves trailing yet again.
A No. 1 receiver with 100% snap share and coming off a heavily-targeted game with a new QB? Give me Over 2.5 receptions all day.
The game script is just an added bonus and might be worth making this a multi-unit bet.
Ben Skowronek Prop: Over 2.5 receptions (-135 at bet365)
Thermometer thumper
Aaron Jones has been limited at practice this week and is looking more probable than doubtful. However, after exiting Week 13 with a shin injury and dealing with it at practice, there is no need for the Packers to lean on Jones this week — especially in the cold.
That could mean more looks for AJ Dillon, who is being priced at +130 for a touchdown in these elements vs. a defense likely missing Aaron Donald again.
The Raiders ran the ball 38 times for 165 yards and a score last week vs. the Rams and had eight of their 17 first downs come via the rush (three by penalty). Los Angeles is still a tough unit to beat in the red zone, but if the Packers’ offense can keep this indoor defense on the field in the frozen tundra of Lambeau, it could be a different story inside the 20.
Dillon also loves the cold weather and told reporters this week that he is looking forward to it
AJ Dillon career splits
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) December 5, 2022
Weeks 1-9
- 8.2 carries
- 1.7 targets
- 45.4 scrimmage yards
- 0.08 TD
- 4.2 YPC
- 6.3 PPR points
Weeks 10-18
- 11.5 carries
- 1.9 targets
- 68.1 scrimmage yards
- 0.64 TD
- 4.7 YPC
- 12.5 PPR points
When the weather gets cold, big fella warms up.
With Jones banged up and struggling of late, Dillon’s role could expand following his best game of the season in Week 13 — 18 carries for 98 yards and a score.
I’d take the TD instead of Dillon's rushing total if it opens at 45.5 yards or higher.
AJ Dillon Prop: Anytime touchdown (+130)
