It’s been a disappointing season for Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco, and he’s seen backfield mate Kareem Hunt take on a larger role leading into Super Bowl 59 against the Philadelphia Eagles at the Caesars Superdome on Sunday, February 9.
While the Isiah Pacheco odds reflect his decreased usage, my top NFL picks for the KC rusher still expect him to have a tough time making a big impact in the Big Easy.
Isiah Pacheco player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 27.5 rush + receiving yards
(+115 at Caesars) - SGP pick
Under 49
Isiah Pacheco Under 27.5 rush + receiving yards
Isiah Pacheco Over 4.5 receiving yards
(+667 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Isiah Pacheco prop pick
My best bet
Under 27.5 rush + receiving yards (+115 at Caesars)
My analysis
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco missed nine regular-season games with a fractured fibula, and he never regained his go-to role out of the backfield down the stretch.
He received five carries in both postseason games while playing 19% of the offensive snaps against the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round and then climbing to 31% against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Conference Championship Game.
The Philadelphia Eagles have an elite run-stopping unit, and finished the regular season ranked second in PFF run defense while allowing the second-lowest EPA per rush, and the Eagles also allowed the fourth-lowest yards per carry to opposing running backs.
As a result, I’m not anticipating the Kansas City offense having a lot of success on the ground against the Eagles in Super Bowl 59.
Instead, I’m expecting KC QB Patrick Mahomes to attack through the air with short and intermediate throws, which will limit the rushing attempts for both Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.
With Hunt likely taking the lead role again Sunday, and KC running back Samaje Perine also mixing in as a pass-protection and pass-catching option, I don’t see enough touches and targets for Pachecho to top his rush + receiving yards total of 27.5.
Pachecho has fallen short of that number in each of his past four games, and he’s also seen his underlying numbers take a huge hit this season.
The third-year rusher has the lowest PFF run grade, PFF elusive rating, yards per carry, and yards after contact per rushing attempt of his career, after all.
Covers Super Bowl betting tools
- Super Bowl odds
- NFL picks
- Super Bowl predictions
- Best Super Bowl betting sites
- Best Super Bowl promos
Isiah Pacheco same-game parlay
Under 49
Isiah Pacheco Under 27.5 rush + receiving yards
Isiah Pacheco Over 4.5 receiving yards
Pairing the Pachecho Under best bet with the Over 4.5 receiving yards is a huge multiplier for this same-game parlay, and while Pachecho hasn’t been a frequent contributor in the passing game, he did haul in both his targets for 12 yards against the Bills in the AFC Conference Championship Game.
Again, I’m also anticipating Mahomes and the KC offense to shy away from the run and attack through the air in an effort to combat the stifling Philly rush defense.
Pacheco has been a solid option in the passing game, too. He caught 14 of 19 targets for 6.5 yards per reception and 9.6 yards after the catch per reception dating back to the regular season, so there’s a good chance he only needs a single catch to hit the Over.
Turning to the total, I expect multiple long, clock-churning drives resulting in field-goal attempts instead of touchdowns because the Eagles and Chiefs, respectively, allowed red-zone trips to result in touchdowns at the sixth- and eighth-lowest clips during the regular season.
Additionally, the Chiefs finished the regular season with an average of 6.7 plays for 3:08 per drive to lead the NFL, while the Eagles respectively ranked sixth (6.3) and fifth (3:01).
It all adds up to Super Bowl 59 going Under the number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New users: Get up to $1,059 in bonus bet insurance at Caesars
Bet on the NFL Playoffs at Caesars Sportsbook, which is offering new users up to $1,059 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join, or learn more with our comprehensive Caesars sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of Caesars bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
