Best NFL Sack and Tackle Props for Week 14: Garrett Dominates the Jaguars Undermanned Front

After a brief hiatus last week, the Sack and Tackle Props column is back in action for Week 14 odds. Yours truly took a trip to Vegas, but now I'm ready to dive into the NFL odds for defensive player props.

Speaking of Sin City, I have a play on this week's game in Vegas as the Raiders face a Vikings safety that has been filling up the stat sheet.

I'm also riding a red-hot Bucs rookie and backing Dolphins end Bradley Chubb in a juicy Monday Night matchup versus Tennessee. Here are my best free sack and tackle NFL picks for Week 14.

This week’s best sack and tackle props

• Yaya Diaby Over 0.25 sacks (+200 at bet365)
• Myles Garrett Over 0.75 sacks (-135 at DraftKings)
• Bradley Chubb Over 0.75 sacks (-105 at DraftKings)
• Aaron Donald Over 3.5 total tackles (-135 at bet365)
• Camryn Bynum Over 3.5 solo tackles (-115 at DraftKings)

Picks made on December 9 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props

Best Week 14 sack picks

Buccaneers vs Falcons: Yaya Diaby

Rookie pass rusher Yaya Diaby has come on strong for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lately, logging at least one sack in four of his last five games. Diaby is the sort of talent that has you scratching your head about why he fell so low in the draft.

Diaby had nine sacks and 14 tackles for loss in his final season at Louisville and then blazed a 4.51 40-yard dash at 263 pounds at the combine. While he was on the field for only about 35% of Tampa Bay's defensive snaps through the first 11 weeks of the season, he has logged 66% of their snaps over the last two weeks.

The Atlanta Falcons are tied for 23rd in the league in sacks allowed. Diaby lines up on both the left and right sides of the field and the Falcons will be without right tackle Kaleb McGary on Sunday. Back the rookie to pick up at least half a sack at plus money. 

Yaya Diaby Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (+200 at bet365)

Jaguars vs Browns: Myles Garrett

While Myles Garrett hasn't picked up a sack in his last two games, the Cleveland Browns superstar still has 13 sacks in 12 games and leads all edge rushers with a 93.9 pass-rush grade per Pro Football Focus. Garrett should be able to break out of his mini-slump at home against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that is a mess at left tackle.

Jacksonville's usual left tackle Cam Robinson has been on the IR since November 27, and his replacement Walker Little struggled before getting injured. Guard Ezra Cleveland, who the Jags acquired at the trade deadline, also hasn't played tackle since college and is sharing LT reps in practice with journeyman Blake Hance. Regardless of who suits up on the blindside for the Jags, they'll be out of their depth against Garrett.

Although there has to be a little concern about playing this prop since the weather in Cleveland might lead to fewer pass attempts for expected starter C.J. Beathard (Trevor Lawrence hasn't been officially ruled out), Beathard was sacked twice in just 12 dropbacks last week.

Myles Garrett Prop: Over 0.75 sacks (-135 at DraftKings)

MNF Titans vs Dolphins: Bradley Chubb

Bradley Chubb has been limited to just half a sack in his last three games, but he had at least one sack in each of his previous four contests and boasts an impressive pass rush grade of 79.2. He should be in for a big game on Monday night against a Tennessee Titans line that has surrendered 42 sacks this year.

Chubb lines up on the right side, which means that he'll match up against Titans left tackle Jaelyn Duncan. The sixth-round rookie replaced struggling starter Andre Dillard last week, but Duncan has fared even worse and was torched for three sacks and nine total pressures against the Colts. 

The Miami Dolphins are 13.5-point favorites for this prime-time showdown against Tennessee. That could mean a big lead for Miami and plenty of dropbacks from Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis as he tries to play catch up. That would provide even more opportunities for Chubb to go Over his sacks prop.

Bradley Chubb Prop: Over 0.75 sacks (-105 at DraftKings)

Best Week 14 tackle picks

Rams vs Ravens: Aaron Donald

Aaron Donald might not be the human cheat code he was earlier in his career, but he still has the fourth-best defensive rating among interior linemen per PFF and logs more than 80% of the Los Angeles Rams defensive snaps. The Over/Under on his total tackles for Sunday is set at 3.5, which he has eclipsed in nine of 10 games this year.

The Over is juiced to -135, but considering how often he has gone Over this number, that's still a bargain. This is especially the case against a Baltimore Ravens team that runs the ball at the highest rate in the league, giving Donald plenty of opportunities around the line of scrimmage.

Aaron Donald PROP: Over 3.5 total tackles (-135 at bet365)

Vikings vs Raiders: Camryn Bynum

Minnesota Vikings safety Camryn Bynum has been a tackling machine and leads the team with 68 solo stops — 18 more than linebacker Jordan Hicks. And with Hicks now on the IR, that could mean even more tackling opportunities for Bynum in Week 14.

Bynum has logged at least five solo tackles in 10 of 12 games this season and he's coming off a performance against the Bears where he had six. With the O/U on his solo tackles set at just 3.5 for Sunday, hammer the Over.

Camryn Bynum Prop: Over 3.5 solo tackles (-115 at DraftKings)

How are sack and tackle props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack. 

Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.

Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

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