The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers mix it up for the second time in three weeks this Sunday.
The last time these NFC West rivals clashed in the NFL odds, San Francisco feasted on roasted Seahawk (whatever that is) on Thanksgiving Thursday, slamming Seattle 31-13 as a 7-point road favorite.
This time around, the 49ers are at home and laying double digits against a Seahawks side coming off a 10-day break following a thrilling loss at Dallas last Thursday night.
I dissect the Week 14 odds for this divisional dance and give my best NFL picks for Seahawks vs. 49ers on December 9.
Seahawks vs 49ers odds
Seahawks vs 49ers predictions
When breaking down the San Francisco 49ers with blogger Kyle Posey on the Thanksgiving edition of our “Sharp 600” podcast, he noted that wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk often trade off big games back and forth.
So, with that in mind and Samuel coming off a stellar 116-yard performance through the air in the Week 13 win over Philadelphia, it would set the table for Aiyuk to have a standout effort in Week 14.
Aiyuk finished with five catches on a team-high seven targets for just 46 yards against the Eagles and went for only 50 yards on two grabs in Week 12’s win over the Seattle Seahawks. The former first-round pick fell short of his receiving yard totals of 65.5 yards O/U in each of those outings.
However, what these two contests shared was that they both occurred away from home. Plus, if we look at Aiyuk’s production splits, he’s been a more dangerous receiver in the Bay Area.
Aiyuk has totaled 471 yards in his four home games this season, with an average of 23.5 yards per reception, versus 456 yards over seven road games, in which he averages only 15.2 yards per catch.
This home/away split very much hinges on quarterback Brock Purdy and his similar spike in passing yards when playing inside Levi's Stadium. Purdy’s completion rate, average yards per attempt, and passer rating are significantly higher at home.
And his favorite target, by far, is Aiyuk.
The Week 14 player props have Aiyuk’s receiving total at 66.5 yards Over/Under, a mark he’s blown out of the water in three of those four homestands. Player projections for the 49ers WR range from 64 to a ceiling of 77 yards, with my number projecting closer to 70 on Sunday.
My best bet: Brandon Aiyuk Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Seahawks vs 49ers same-game parlay
Brandon Aiyuk Over 66.5 receiving yards
Geno Smith Over 8.5 rushing yards
49ers moneyline
Aiyuk went for 73 yards the last time he faced the Seahawks at home and many models are calling for another 70-plus day. Meanwhile, Geno Smith had to make plays with his legs the last time he faced this Niners’ pass rush.
The market is down on the Niners against the spread, so we’ll keep it clean with San Francisco to win outright on the SGP.
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Seahawks vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
Following the 49ers’ one-sided win in Philadelphia last weekend, the opening Week 14 odds were very high on the home side.
San Francisco hit the board as big as -12.5, but the early action didn’t share the same sentiment on the 49ers and bet this spread down to Niners -10.5. According to Covers Consensus, 54% of picks are taking the points with the visitors.
Aside from the potential letdown spot for San Francisco following such an emotionally charged win over the Eagles in Week 13, Seattle does have the rest edge after losing a 41-35 shootout with the Cowboys last Thursday.
The 49ers are worthy of this lofty spread and have the firepower to plow through that chalk, having scored a combined 134 points during their current four-game winning streak. San Francisco, which owns the No. 1 Total DVOA rating, is also No. 2 in EPA per play during this winning run.
The Seahawks defense bowed for 31 points to the Niners on Thanksgiving and has allowed a collective 152 points over the last five outings. Seattle, which has only two wins in that span, sits 29th in EPA allowed per play since Week 9.
Sunday’s total opened as low as 44 points and jumped to 46.5, given the scoring capacity of the 49ers as well as the explosiveness we saw from Seattle’s passing playbook in Week 14.
The Week 12 matchups between these foes finished just Over the closing total of 43 points. Seattle enters this road trip with a 6-6 Over/Under count, including 2-4 O/U on the road. San Francisco is 6-5-1 O/U, having gone 3-2 at Levi’s Stadium.
Seahawks vs 49ers betting trend to know
The 49ers have covered in four straight meetings with the Seahawks and are 6-3 ATS in their last nine matchups dating back to 2019. Find more NFL betting trends for Seahawks vs. 49ers.
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Seahawks vs 49ers game info
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 10, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | 49ers -12.5, 45.5 |
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