Week 12 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns.
Covers' betting analysts offered their favorite plays for tonight's AFC North matchup — read on to see all their Steelers vs. Browns best bets!
Steelers vs Browns best bets
Pickens over 56.5 rec yards- Harris over 64.5 rush yards
- Wilson Under 10.5 rush yards
Jeudy anytime TD- Same-game parlay
Steelers vs Browns best bets for TNF
Neil Parker's TNF expert pick
George Pickens Over 56.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
George Pickens has caught 22 of 33 targets for 365 yards through four games with Russell Wilson behind center, and the go-to receiver has been targeted on a monster 26.2% of his routes over that stretch.
He’s also cleared this modest yardage total in each of those games – and seven of 10 for the season overall – with a season-high eight receptions and 12 targets last week.
The Cleveland Browns have also allowed the second-highest yards per target (9.09) to opposing wide receivers this season, and that mark has soared to 11.21 since their own quarterback switch to Jameis Winston.
Cleveland ranks 31st in PFF's coverage grade too, so this is a solid setup given Pickens' target share.
Also read: Neil's full Steelers vs. Browns predictions.
Rohit Ponnaiya's TNF expert pick
Najee Harris Over 64.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Najee Harris was limited to 63 yards on 18 carries against a tough Ravens run defense last week. However, he had rushed for more than 100 yards in three of his previous four contests and should get plenty of carries in a cold-weather game.
The Browns are 25th in the league in defensive rush EPA and have missed top linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who has been on the IR since suffering a neck injury in Week 8.
With the Browns allowing 131.7 yards per game on the ground and ranking 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.8), back Harris to go Over his rushing yards.
Also read: Rohit's full Steelers vs. Browns props.
Sam Farley's TNF expert pick
Russell Wilson Under 10.5 rush yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Russell Wilson has at least three rushing attempts in all four of his starts this season but his highest rushing yard total in any of those games was seven — and he's not running as often as he did in Denver or Seattle.
Russ is more effective passing in the pocket than he is with his legs, plus the Steelers also have Justin Fields on the sideline, so they can bring him on if they're in short-yardage situations and want to add the threat of rushing.
Also read: Sam's full Russell Wilson odds and props spotlight.
Zak Hanshew's TNF expert pick
Jerry Jeudy anytime touchdown (+300 at FanDuel)
Over the first six games of the season, with Deshaun Watson under center, Jerry Jeudy posted a 21/266/1 line on 42 targets, averaging out to 3.5 receptions and 44.3 yards on seven targets per game.
Over the last three weeks (with Jameis Winston), Jeudy has erupted for 18/294/1 on 30 targets. That’s good for 6/98 on 10 targets per game — including a season-best six catches for 142 yards against the Saints last week, finding the end zone on an 89-yard TD reception.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been strong, but it's better against the run; it has been more middling against the pass, surrendering the 14th-most air yards, so Winston will need to open it up... and I'm betting on his favorite deep-ball target hitting paydirt.
Also read: Zak's full anytime TD props for TNF.
Neil Parker's Steelers vs Browns SGP
George Pickens Over 56.5 receiving yards
Steelers moneyline
Darnell Washington Over 11.5 receiving yards
Pickens has taken off with Wilson as QB and has a great matchup against a Browns defense that has two of its three best corners — plus star defensive lineman Myles Garrett — playing hurt.
I also believe we're landing a good number here with the Steelers, who are better on both sides of the ball in terms of EPA per play and PFF grade, and this total is shrinking due to a blistering weather forecast calling for brisk winds and potential wintry conditions. In what's looking like a low-scoring game, I'm backing the better defense, better head coach, and more experienced quarterback.
Pittsburgh tight end Darnell Washington has been a sneaky contributor in the passing game as the season has progressed, hauling in 12 of 17 targets for 158 yards in the past seven games and recording 30+ yards four times.
The Browns have been carved up by tight ends all year — just look at last week, as Saints tight ends Taysom Hill, Foster Moreau, and Juwan Johnson combined the tune of 14 receptions and 130 yards.
It’s also worth noting that this SGP climbs to +513 odds if opting to take the Steelers -3.5 spread instead of the moneyline.
How to watch Steelers vs Browns
| Location: | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-21-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
Not intended for use in MA.
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