So last weekend was a little rough, especially if you were the Chargers, Steelers, Broncos... or a person who had NFL player props involving all of those teams.
However, unlike those underperforming groups, we've still got action as we head into the Divisional Round, where players (and teams) should be a little more reliable — and my NFL picks are targeting some trusty running backs, reliable pass-catchers, with an appealing alt-total for good measure.
There are four games this weekend, so I've got (at least) one NFL prop for each — time for redemption!
NFL Divisional Round prop picks
Mixon o15.5 rec yards (-110)
Zaccheaus o31.5 receiving yards (-110)
Barkley long rush o18.5 yards (-120)
Coleman 30+ rec yards (+125)
Andrews o36.5 rec yards (-114)
Click on each pick to see full analysis.
NFL prop picks for Divisional Round
Joe Mixon Over 15.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
The Houston Texans are 8.5-point road underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs, so there's a good chance they're passing a lot and chasing points in the latter half of this game.
Houston has the luxury of Nico Collins, one of the league's premier receivers, but I expect him to see a lot of star CB Trent McDuffie and/or double coverage on Saturday afternoon — so I'm turning my focus to running back Joe Mixon, the team's next most important playmaker.
However, with rushing likely to be a struggle vs. a Chiefs defense that is among the Top 5 in yards per game and yards per carry — and a game script that should mean more dropbacks for Stroud — the Texans will look to activate the veteran back more out of the backfield, putting the Over on his receiving yards in play.
Mixon's total is as low as 15.5 right now, a number he's topped in 9/15 games this season, and he's averaged 22.1 receiving ypg on the season with double-digit yards in 11 of those contests.
Kansas City also brings a ton of pressure, which will force QB C.J. Stroud to get rid of the ball quickly — and in a cold, hostile environment, check-downs should be on the menu.
Industry projections range as high as 23 yards for Mixon in this game, averaging around 20.5 yards, giving a little bit of buffer on this prop.
Pick made on 1-15
Olamide Zaccheaus Over 31.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
The Washington Commanders offense will need to be all systems go to keep pace with the high-octane Detroit Lions Saturday night. Considering the running game has been rather ineffective lately, the offense will need QB Jayden Daniels and the passing game to carry the load.
That should mean another big day for star WR Terry McLaurin, but against a Lions pass defense that gave up the third-most passing yards this season (and 330+ in three of its last four games), I'm also expecting secondary receivers like Olamide Zaccheaus to step up as well.
Zaccheaus was quiet in the Commanders' Wild Card Round win, catching all three targets for 19 yards as Dyami Brown was the supporting star, snapping a stretch of production where the sixth-year pro had established himself down the stretch as Washington's No. 2 receiver.
He was second only to McLaurin in targets and receptions among Washington WRs and led the team in yards over the final four weeks. He averaged 4.5 catches and 60.5 yards in that span and was Daniels' second-most targeted receiver against man coverage this season — Detroit plays more man coverage than any team in the league.
Industry projections put Zaccheus at around 39 yards this weekend, ranging as high as 46. If you want to play his 40+ alt-total, you can find it as long as +145, but I'll stick with his regular line, which shows a better value.
Pick made on 1-15
Saquon Barkley longest rush Over 18.5 yards (-120 at FanDuel)
When it comes to stopping (maybe "limiting the damage" is a better term?) elite running backs like Saquon Barkley, the key is to hit them before they get to the second level.
It's easier said than done; the Philadelphia Eagles' road graters on the O-line, combined with Barkley's incredible combination of speed, agility, elusiveness, and power, make it nearly impossible to stop Saquon before he starts — he ranks No. 1 in yards before contact (per PFF insights). The Los Angeles Rams, however, have struggled in this area, ranking 28th in average yards allowed before contact.
The Rams allowed the sixth-most yards per carry this season, and giving Barkley room to run is just asking for him to break off some big runs — which is exactly what he'll do Sunday afternoon.
Barkley only had a long run (well, two runs) of 17 yards last week (the second could have gone for 50 yards but he slid down to end the game), but had logged a run of 20+ yards in six of his previous seven games and has topped this number in 12/17 games this season.
Plus, seeing how ferocious the Rams pass rush was in the Wild Card win over Minnesota — and QB Jalen Hurts struggling in the passing game — HC Nick Sirianni will likely lean heavily on his star weapon, giving him more opportunities to break a big run.
Saquon also faced this Rams team earlier this season... and had 26 carries for a career-high 255 rushing yards — including two runs of 70+ yards.
Pick made on 1-16
Keon Coleman 30+ receiving yards (+125 at bet365)
The marquee game of the weekend (and a possible "Game of the Year" candidate) wraps up the Divisional Round, and it presents the perfect opportunity for rookie Keon Coleman to shine in prime time.
The Buffalo Bills face a Baltimore Ravens pass defense that plays one of the highest man coverage rates in the league — and Coleman leads the Bills in target rate, yards, YAC per reception, and ADOT vs. man coverage this season.
His receiving yardage total is just 22.5 for Sunday's tilt, but with industry projections putting him around 37 yards (and ranging as high as 45 yards), I love the value on his alt-total of 30+ yards.
Three of Coleman's four highest receiving totals this year came against teams in the top half of the league in man coverage rate (including 51 yards vs. Baltimore earlier this year), while game script should also work in his favor: Baltimore's offense should put up points on the Bills, and its defense is No. 1 against the run, so we could see a passing funnel as Josh Allen & Co. keep pace with the Ravens explosive attack.
Pick made on 1-16
Mark Andrews Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
I did say "at least" one pick per game, but this matchup is so good that I'm hopping on the other side of what should be a high-scoring affair and backing Baltimore Ravens mainstay Mark Andrews to top his receiving yardage total.
After an injury-plagued start, the veteran tight end delivered another consistent season, posting 36+ receiving yards (with a 47 ypg average) in 10 of his last 14 games. As for the four games where he fell short? Two blowout wins... and two rivalry games with Pittsburgh.
This matchup with the Bills should not be as hard-nosed as a Steelers game, the 1-point spread suggests this won't be a blowout either, and a total in the 50s suggest that offense will be aplenty.
Schematically this is also a good matchup for Andrews, who has performed well against zone coverage this season — the Bills defense runs zone coverages at the 10th-highest rate in the league — and with wide receiver Zay Flowers looking unlikely to play this weekend with a knee injury, Andrews again is elevated in the Ravens' pass-catching pecking order.
Industry projections range as high as 48 for Andrews on Sunday night, averaging around 43 yards, giving a little bit of buffer on this number.
Pick made on 1-16
NFL Divisional Round prop betting card
- Joe Mixon Over 15.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Olamide Zaccheaus Over 31.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Saquon Barkley longest rush Over 18.5 yards (-120)
- Keon Coleman 30+ receiving yards (+125)
- Mark Andrews Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114)
Last week: 1-5, -4.09 units
Season: 41-44, -7.8 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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