Week 11 odds in the NFL feature an NFC North clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. NFL odds for this matchup have the Browns as 1-point home favorites, but the real eye-opener is an Over/Under which sits at just 32.5, one of the lowest totals in recent NFL betting history.
That number is even more shocking when you consider that the majority of games even close to this total had extreme weather, and this should be a relatively mild afternoon in Cleveland. With that said, here are my best free NFL picks for Steelers vs. Browns on November 19.
Steelers vs Browns odds
Steelers vs Browns predictions
To say the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is pathetic would be an understatement. This is a unit that features poor play-calling, terrible pass blocking, and a ground game that churns out just 4.0 yards per carry.
Kenny Pickett remains at quarterback with few weapons around him, ranking 28th in the league in QBR (36.3) while his 179.6 passing yards per game comes in dead last.
What's shocking is that Pickett might actually be the better passer in this matchup. With Deshaun Watson done for the year with a shoulder injury, the Cleveland Browns have named fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson their starter for Sunday. Thompson-Robinson started against the Ravens in Week 4 and completed 19 of 36 passes for just 121 yards while throwing three picks.
After that disastrous pro debut, veteran P.J. Walker started the next three games but completed just 49% of his passes with one touchdown and five interceptions. As awful as those numbers look, Walker displayed more composure than Thompson-Robinson, but his lack of upside has resulted in Cleveland's brass opting for the rookie who flashed during the preseason.
Thompson-Robinson also has the edge in another key area: his ability to run. He boasts a blazing 4.56 40-yard-dash and had 24 yards on four carries against Baltimore while rushing for 646 yards in his final season at UCLA.
Cleveland's usually stout offensive line is also in a tough spot, with both starting tackles on the IL and Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller questionable with a calf injury. That means that Thompson-Robinson will be under plenty of pressure coming off the edge, courtesy of T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.
That should result in DTR taking off under center and trying to make plays with his feet. He should have success with that since the Steelers allow 4.5 yards per carry and just lost both starting inside linebackers to season-ending injuries. Take the Over on his rushing yards prop, which is set at just 19.5 yards.
If there's one thing that this Cleveland offense can do at a somewhat decent level, it's run the ball. Jerome Ford is coming off a 107-yard performance against the Ravens, and the Browns will likely lean on him against a Pittsburgh defense that's getting gashed on the ground.
The Steelers are allowing 4.5 yards per carry and could be even worse with both starting LBs sidelined by season-ending injuries and defensive linemen Cam Heyward and Montravius Adams questionable as well.
My best bet: Dorian Thompson-Robinson Over 19.5 rushing yards (+100)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Steelers vs Browns same-game parlay
Dorian Thompson-Robinson Over 19.5 rushing yards
Jerome Ford Over 49.5 rushing yards
Jaylen Warren Over 36.5 rushing yards
With this line at close to a pick'em and an extremely low total on the board, this should be a low-scoring game where both teams rely on their ground games. While I'm wary about betting the Under at such a low number, I do like several rushing yards props to cash.
The Browns will lean on Ford against a Pittsburgh defense that's getting gashed on the ground. In addition to season-ending injuries to linebackers Kwon Alexander and Cole Holcomb, defensive linemen Cam Heyward and Montravius Adams are questionable as well.
Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren was finally named Pittsburgh's starting running back last week after outplaying Najee Harris for the entire season. Warren rewarded the Steelers with 101 yards on a season-high 15 carries and he also rushed for 88 yards on 11 carries the previous week. Even against a stout Cleveland defense, Warren's rushing yards total is too low at 36.5.
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Steelers vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis
The Browns opened as 4-point home favorites for this divisional showdown, but after the news came out that Watson was done for the year, this line moved all the way to the Browns at +1 before buyback moved them back to slight faves at -1.
The total has plummeted from the opening number of 38.5 to just 32.5, which is the lowest total in the NFL since last December when the Browns were hosting the Saints in freezing weather with 28 mph winds.
Despite struggling on offense, the Steelers are 6-3 straight up and against the spread this year. As bad as Pickett has been, he's done a good job of limiting turnovers and has led the Steelers to multiple fourth-quarter comebacks.
The Browns are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games and are coming off a 33-31 upset victory against the Ravens. That said, losing Watson for the season really hurts, especially with Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb and both starting tackles also on the IL. They'll need to rely on their stop unit going forward, which currently ranks first in the league in defensive EPA.
Steelers vs Browns betting trend to know
The Under is 7-0-1 in Cleveland's last eight games at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Browns.
Steelers vs Browns game info
| Location: | Cleveland Brown Stadium, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, November 19, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Browns -4, 38.5 |
Steelers vs Browns latest injuries
Steelers vs Browns weather
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