Texans vs Jets Predictions and Picks for TNF: Halloween Safety Blanket

Will Halloween bettors get a trick or a treat when the Houston Texans knock on the door of MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets?

The short week doesn’t do Houston any favors, with the receiving corps missing top targets. That pumps up the involvement of tight end Dalton Schultz in my Texans vs. Jets predictions, taking on a New York defense also missing key pieces.

Find out more in my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football on October 31.

Texans vs Jets TNF prediction

My best bet
Dalton Schultz longest reception Over 16.5 yards (-128 at FanDuel)

My analysis

Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz is already playing a significant role in the Texans' passing playbook, running the second most snaps among tight ends, the fourth most routes for the position, and ranking ninth in air yards among TEs. 

Schultz is tied for third in total targets for the team, but with WRs Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs out of commission for Week 9, his involvement in the offense just skyrocketed. 

On the season, Schultz is averaging just short of three receptions on almost five targets per game. With Collins out, he’s drawn six or more targets in three of the last four outings while averaging almost 11 yards per reception. 

The New York Jets defense has been susceptible to bigger plays, allowing 23 receptions of 20-plus, while also allowing an average depth of target of 9.4 yards — third highest in the NFL. New York has limited rival TEs to just over nine yards per catch on the season, but the short week could leave massive questions in terms of how the Jets will defend Schultz. 

Not only could Gang Green be missing its two starting safeties in Ashtyn Davis and Tony Adams, but top coverage linebacker C.J. Mosley is trending toward missing Thursday due to a neck injury. Backup LB Chazz Surratt is also limited heading into Week 9.

Unlike some tight ends, Schultz is utilized on deeper routes and has seen his share of targets on intermediate-to-deep play calls (10 to 20+ yards). He’s eighth in average depth of target among tight ends with 10 or more targets on the season and has posted longs of 17, 18, 23, and 28 yards over the last five games.

Schultz's longest receptions prop has been parked at 15.5 yards O/U for the past few weeks. While his receptions and yardage totals for Week 9 have been jacked up with the market reacting to the Texans' missing receivers, his longest reception bar for Thursday climbs to just 16.5, with some books listing as high as 18.5 yards for this player O/U.

Texans vs Jets TNF same-game parlay

Dalton Schultz 4+ receptions

Joe Mixon 3+ receptions

Breece Hall anytime touchdown

+320 at FanDuel

Schultz’s role gets a boost with the Texans' receiving corps in shambles. He’s caught four balls in three of his last four games.

Meanwhile, Joe Mixon should also help fill gaps in the passing game. He had four grabs on six targets last Sunday.

Breece Hall is a threat to run or catch for a touchdown, facing a Texans defense ranked 30th in red-zone TD rate.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Texans vs Jets odds

Texans vs Jets live odds

Texans vs Jets opening odds

• Spread: Houston +1.5 | New York -1.5
• Moneyline: Houston -105 | New York -115
• Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Texans vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis

• Sportsbooks opened with the Jets as slight favorites at home, with New York listed at -1.5. Some books took money on the visitor and jumped the fence with Houston at -1 in the opening 12 hours of action.

• Since that split, we’ve seen a market consensus move toward the Jets, with respected money taking New York. That has this spread sitting as high as Gang Green -2.5. 

• As for the total, it opened at 42.5 and has bounced around that number. According to Covers Consensus, 67% of picks are backing the Over. 

Texans vs Jets betting trend to know

With this game on Halloween and the costumed crowds at MetLife Stadium enjoying some “holiday cheer”, could there be an extra advantage for the Jets? Well, home teams on October 31 are 27-16 SU and 24-18-1 ATS (57%) since 2000, including home teams boasting a 7-2 SU and ATS record in primetime games on All Hallows' Eve. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Jets.

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