I know there's a lot of NFL Week 13 action before the Sunday slate, but there is still more to come on one of the best betting weekends of the year.
I have been getting burned on the ground with running back touchdowns, so I'm backing a trio of wide receivers who are all +200 or better to score this Sunday.
These are my three favorite anytime touchdown props and NFL picks for Week 13.
Week 13 touchdown props
- Pittman anytime TD (+220 at bet365)
- N. Brown anytime TD (+280 at FanDuel)
- Smith-Njigba anytime TD (+205 at Caesars)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 13 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Michael Pittman Jr. anytime TD
Best odds: +220 at bet365
The Indianapolis Colts managed two field goals last week vs. the Lions and Anthony Richardson looked bad again, but this week, Michael Pittman Jr. has the chance to be the focal part of the offense in a good matchup on the road vs. the New England Patriots.
Josh Downs and Alec Pierce both were non-participants on Wednesday’s estimated practice and Shane Steichen has said that it will be "tough" for Downs to play while Pierce has some work to do to get a full workload in Week 13.
That means a potentially big target share for Pittman, who has looked better of late after dealing with a back injury. The only healthy receivers right now are Pittman and Adonai Mitchell.
Even with Richardson having arguably the worst QB performance of Week 12, Pittman caught six of his team-high seven targets for 96 yards, which were nearly half of the team’s total passing yards. Now, he’ll face a much easier New England defense that ranks 30th in EPA/dropback.
The weather doesn’t look too bad and Pittman is paying a very solid +220 for a TD for the No.1 offensive piece as a 2.5-point favorite and a projected team total of 21 points. I'm buying this to +175.
TD Prop bet #2: Noah Brown anytime TD
Best odds: +280 at FanDuel
The Washington Commanders offense is going to have to throw the ball this week. The run game has taken some injuries with Austin Ekeler likely out and Brian Robinson struggling to stay healthy. Passing against the Tennessee Titans is also a lot easier than running against it while the re-emergence of Will Levis and the passing game could turn this into a shootout.
The No.1 target for Jayden Daniels these days is not Terry McLaurin but Noah Brown. McLaurin had 102 yards last week but 86 of those came on that late TD. Had he not finished his day with that catch and run, it would have been the third time in four games finishing Under 25 yards receiving. His target share is not great and that is why I like Brown, particularly in the absence of a run game, for a TD at +280.
Brown has at least six targets in four of his last five games and now might have a bigger target share without Ekeler while also getting a better red-zone role if Robinson can’t go. To make matters better for the Washington passing game, the Titans are without Quandre Diggs and L’Jarius Sneed (IR) while three other members of the secondary are questionable mid-week.
Brown is the better TD bet at 100 points longer than McLaurin.
TD Prop bet #3: Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD
Best odds: +205 at Caesars
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played nine games with DK Metcalf this year and has just one fewer target. The second-year Seattle Seahawks receiver might be the most important part of this division-leading offense and his role could be even bigger in Week 13 vs. the New York Jets, who rank 29th in EPA vs. the pass since Week 9.
Metcalf was a DNP at practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury, which is a new ailment for the receiver who missed two games with a knee injury earlier in the season. In the games he sat, JSN put up 249 receiving yards on 13 catches and two scores. To boost this potential box-score-filling game, Tyler Lockett is also dealing with an injury (knee) and was DNP on Wednesday, as well.
JSN could go off this week on the road with an offense passing the ball at one of the highest rates in the league (64%). His TD odds also sit at +205, which could fall to +135 if DK and Lockett don’t suit up.
Not intended for use in MA.
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