Week 1 NFL Trend Report: Can Giants Keep Playing Underdog Spoiler?

Welcome to the Week 1 NFL Trends Report! This will be a weekly article where I provide you with my favorite trend for every single game that week. 

In most cases, these will be playable trends that make sense to apply to your handicap. So, none of this silly “team X has covered in 75% of its non-divisional road games in October when playing at a stadium that has a retractable roof” crap. Trends like that with multiple qualifiers are almost always coincidental and anyone who sees value in them is not a serious person.

Instead, I’ll mainly provide trends that can be backed with stats that the NFL odds market hasn’t shown an overwhelming reaction to. For full transparency, we won’t always have a lights-out trend to consider backing for every single game, so I’ll be sure to point out when a trend shouldn’t factor into your handicap or NFL picks. 

Week 1 and the first few weeks of any season can be a little tricky as old trends can give way to new ones, but we’re also likely to see some carryover from previous seasons, so let’s go!

Best NFL Week 1 betting trends

Lions at Chiefs

The trend: The Chiefs are 9-1 SU under Andy Reid in Week 1.

Coach Reid has a sparkling reputation when he has a lot of time to prepare with his Kansas City Chiefs teams routinely starting a season strong. This offense has come out blazing hot since Patrick Mahomes became the starter, averaging 37.8 points per game in Week 1, which has paved the way for the team to go 5-0. The hot starts make the Chiefs an attractive moneyline parlay option while the Over on their team total of 28.5 is also a logical bet vs. a Detroit Lions defense that was one of the league’s worst in 2022.

See all Lions vs. Chiefs trends for Week 1.

Texans at Ravens

The trend: The Ravens have won five of their last six Week 1 games by 15 or more points.

Saying “15 or more” might not be doing this one justice as the Baltimore Ravens have won by 49, 44, and 32 during this tear of season openers. The Ravens are making a serious pattern of swinging the hammer in one-sided Week 1 ass-kickings, which is important to consider as they’re Week 1’s biggest favorite at -10 vs. CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans.

See all Texans vs. Ravens trends for Week 1.

Jaguars at Colts

The trend: The Colts are 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 Week 1 games.

I’ll be the first to admit that this doesn’t exactly carry a ton of weight as the sole reason to fade the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Peyton Manning was the quarterback for a Tony Dungy-coached team when the trend began and Indy has seen a handful of coaches and QBs during the last 15 years. In fact, it doesn’t really matter at all and has little to do with the 2023 version of the Colts, it’s just a fun trend that I hope continues for another 15 years. No offense, Colts fans.

See all Jaguars vs. Colts trends for Week 1.

49ers at Steelers

The trend: Pittsburgh has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven straight games that TJ Watt has played in.

Very few non-quarterbacks have the ability to change the entire complexion of a game but TJ Watt is one of them. In the 10 games TJ Watt played last season, the Pittsburgh Steelers allowed just 16.9 points per game. They allowed 25.5 in the games he missed. With another top-tier defense on the other side of the field, don’t be surprised if points are hard to come by in this one.

See all 49ers vs. Steelers trends for Week 1.

Buccaneers at Vikings

The trend: The Bucs have gone Under their team total in 17 of their last 21 games.

This is obviously a much different-looking Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, and with their team total sitting at 19.5, it wouldn’t be a shock if Baker Mayfield couldn’t get them to 20 points. The Minnesota Vikings defense could also look a lot different this season with Brian Flores stepping in as defensive coordinator. This is a pretty good opportunity for Flores to make a good first impression vs. one of the NFL’s worst offenses.

See all Buccaneers vs. Titans trends for Week 1.

Bengals at Browns

The trend: The Bengals are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games.

A lot of the narratives are going against the Cincinnati Bengals in this one. The Cleveland Browns have had their number by winning five of the last six games between the teams, while some think Joe Burrow could be rusty after being injured for a majority of the preseason. Perhaps because of those narratives, though, Cincinnati is reasonably priced as a 2.5-point favorite vs. an unstable Browns team that’s filled with question marks. 

See all Bengals vs. Browns trends for Week 1.

Cardinals at Commanders

The trend: The Commanders have gone Under in 18 of their last 23 home games.

It’s no coincidence that this game has the lowest total of the week at 38.5 points, which still might not be low enough. The Washington Commanders' home games last season had an average combined score of 36.8 while the Arizona Cardinals probably have the worst offense in the league with an embarrassing quarterback depth chart featuring Joshua Dobbs and a man named Clayton Tune. Jonathan Gannon is slowly becoming a laughingstock, but maybe he can silence the criticism for a week with a strong defensive performance.

See all Cardinals vs. Commanders trends for Week 1.

Titans at Saints

The trend: The Titans have gone Under the 4th quarter total in 16 of their last 17 games.

Admittedly, a bit of an odd one here without a lot of substance to back it up — especially for a Week 1 game — but 16 out of 17 is an impossible trend to ignore.  If you’re a believer, the 4th quarter total for this matchup is 11.5 points. Conveniently enough, this was also a strong bet for the New Orleans Saints to close out last season as they went Under the 4th quarter total in nine of their last 12 games.

See all Titans vs. Saints trends for Week 1

Panthers at Falcons

The trend: Atlanta is 4-16 SU in the 1st quarter in their last 20 games.

Poor starts have become commonplace for the Atlanta Falcons in the Arthur Smith era. They had a lot of trouble breaking the ice last season as another trend has seen the other team score first in 11 of their last 16 games. There are a lot of unknowns with this new-look Carolina Panthers team, but maybe Frank Reich and Bryce Young can cook something up early and cash the first quarter moneyline at +120 odds.

See all Panthers vs. Falcons trends for Week 1.

Eagles at Patriots

The trend: The loser of the Super Bowl is 4-19 ATS in Week 1 over the last 23 seasons.

The case against the Philadelphia Eagles isn’t a very strong one in this game, but you can say that for a handful of teams every week. While they are clearly the superior team, it wouldn’t be a shock if there’s an adjustment period after losing both their offensive and defensive coordinators. Depending on who covers, it’ll either be “I told you this was a trap,” or “I told you this was the easiest bet of the week,” type of response from bettors.

See all Eagles vs. Patriots trends for Week 1.

Packers at Bears

The trend: Justin Fields is 1-8 SU vs other NFC North teams.

Are we forgetting that the Chicago Bears were the worst team in the league last season? Quarterback Justin Fields is flashy, but flashy hasn’t got it done in divisional games for Chicago, who’ve failed to even reach 20 points in five of these nine games. He had three interceptions and zero touchdown passes in two games vs. the Green Bay Packers last season. As a small dog in this one, Green Bay will enter the season with a boulder-sized chip on its shoulder and could come out flying.

See all Packers vs. Bears trends for Week 1.

Dolphins at Chargers

The trend: LA is 6-12 on the 2nd half moneyline in its last 18 games.

This one won’t blow anyone away, but it seems especially relevant given the Los Angeles Chargers’ pathetic collapse in the wild-card round vs. the Jaguars. This team simply isn’t very clutch — they’re the opposite of that. LA ranked a surprising 28th in second-half points last season while the Miami Dolphins came in at sixth in this category on the road. Miami can be had on the second-half moneyline at +114.

See all Dolphins vs. Chargers trends for Week 1.

Rams at Seahawks

The trend: Seattle is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games.

I get it. It’s a new season, but a lot of people are completely forgetting the fact that the Seattle Seahawks fell off a cliff in the second half of last season. They went 3-5 SU down the stretch and failed to cover in both games vs. the Los Angeles Rams in that span. LA has actually covered five straight in this matchup and has only lost by more than five once in the last 11 matchups vs. the Seahawks. The Rams are a +5.5-point underdog.

See all Rams vs. Seahawks trends for Week 1.

Raiders at Broncos

The trend: Las Vegas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. Denver.

With the Denver Broncos favored by four, I’m happy to point out that they only had two wins by more than four points last season. The Las Vegas Raiders made a habit of losing close ones in 2022, as five of their losses came by three points or less, so don’t be surprised if they keep this one tight. Vegas won and covered in both games vs. Denver last season, so it’ll be interesting to see if Sean Payton makes a difference.

See all Raiders vs. Broncos trends for Week 1.

Cowboys at Giants

The trend: The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog

The New York Giants were undoubtedly one of the league’s greatest overachievers in 2022. They were an underdog 12 times and they’ll be back in that familiar territory as a 3.5-point home dog vs. the Dallas Cowboys. New York made a habit of playing in close contests as 13 of their 17 games last season were decided by one score. If you’re not comfortable backing them at +3.5, they make for an excellent look on a 6-point teaser.

See all Cowboys vs. Giants trends for Week 1.

Bills at Jets

The trend: The Jets are 5-25 SU in their last 30 divisional games.

The New York Jets have been a divisional punching bag for years. Does Aaron Rodgers change that? Specific to this matchup, they actually won a game vs. the Buffalo Bills last season, but were a double-digit underdog in both games. With the arrival of Rodgers, the spread is all the way down to 2.5 in favor of the Bills, who came out flying in Week 1 last season by destroying the Rams by 21 points.

See all Bills vs. Jets trends for Week 1.

May the trends be in your favor in Week 1!

Best of luck with your Week 1 wagers, especially if you’re using some of the trends in this article to support your selections. Remember to always do additional research to back trends you like and to shop around at different sportsbooks for the best possible odds. Catch you in Week 2!

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