NFL Week 1 Total Bets: Lions and Rams Put On a Show

Over/Under bet #1: Jaguars vs Dolphins Over 49 (-110 at bet365)

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars were extremely disappointing last year, flaming out down the stretch to lose five of their final six games. That said, the public is now undervaluing what this offense is capable of. A healthy Lawrence is still one of the most talented QBs in the world, and his receiver group got a boost by signing Gabe Davis and drafting Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round. 

Lawrence will move the ball against a Miami Dolphins defense well below average after losing Bradley Chubb and Christian Wilkins in the offseason. There's also a good chance shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey will miss Week 1 due to a hamstring injury that has kept him out of practice for the last couple of weeks.

Jacksonville's offense should be efficient, but there are significant concerns with a stop unit that ranked 25th in the league in defensive EPA during the second half of last season. It'll be lit up by an explosive Dolphins offense' that's surrounded Tua Tagovailoa with weapons like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De'Von Achane. 

Another reason to like the Over here is both teams have new defensive coordinators, and significant changes in defensive philosophy usually come with early struggles. 

Over/Under bet #2: Patriots vs Bengals Under 41 (-110 at bet365)

This total opened at 42.5 and has been bet down to 41, but I still like the Under at that number. Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but the rest of the Cincinnati Bengals offense is filled with question marks. 

All-Pro wideout Ja'Marr Chase is holding out for a new contract, and while there's optimism he plays, he'll be rusty after missing training camp.

Cincy already lost slot receiver Tyler Boyd in the offseason, while No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins is questionable with a hamstring injury. If the Bengals WR corps isn't at full strength, it significantly reduces the ceiling of their offense since their line and running back situation is ugly. 

On paper, the New England Patriots should have a poor stop unit, but that was also the situation last year, and they finished eighth in the league in defensive EPA. The Pats are simply too well coached to be a disaster on defense, but the main reason I love the Under is their offense looks atrocious.

Career backup Jacoby Brissett will play QB until rookie Drake Maye is ready, and their offensive line and WR corps might be the worst in the league. This New England offense played conservatively with an extremely slow tempo last year and I'm expecting it to lean on its ground game in a snoozer here.  

Over/Under bet #3: Rams vs Lions Over 52 (-110 at DraftKings)

The Detroit Lions have virtually the same offense that ended last season fifth in the league in scoring (27.1 ppg), with that number bumping up to 30.5 at home.

Jared Goff returns at QB behind an excellent offensive line, and he has All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta as his top targets, with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs forming a two-headed monster in the backfield. 

They'll shred a Los Angeles Rams defense that was 20th in the league in EPA a year ago and had Aaron Donald retire in the offseason. Donald anchored their front seven for the last decade, and losing him, along with leading tackler Ernest Jones, will be devastating. With cornerback Darious Williams ending up on the IR this week, this unit is ripe for the picking. 

The Rams will be much better on the other side of the ball thanks to a balanced attack led by Matthew Stafford and Kyren William. Puka Nacua set the record for receiving yards (1,486) by a rookie last year, and with 2021 All-Pro Cooper Kupp looking healthy, they'll make up one of the best WR duos in the league. They should torch a Lions pass defense that was 25th in the league in dropback EPA last year. 

The Leos tried to solve that problem in the offseason by adding end Marcus Davenport along with corners Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold. That said, the injury-plagued Davenport hasn't had a productive season since 2021, Davis is coming off the worst season of his career, and Arnold is a rookie... so don't expect a quick fix.