The middle of November sees a drastic dip in temperatures, which means winds howling in northern parts of the country.
Those breezes could impact the outcomes of the NFL Week 11 outdoor games, which means the odds are already on the move.
Here’s the NFL betting weather report for Week 11.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets weather
This is a forecast to keep an eye on due to the varying weather reports for MetLife Stadium.
Some places are calling for mild winds, topping out at 17 mph gusts Sunday afternoon, but one popular model is showing sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts getting up to 31 mph, blowing SWS from corner to corner.
This Over/Under opened at 43.5 points and has bounced around that number most of the week, coming back to the original total as of this writing.
MetLife Stadium is known for weird swirling winds in the northwest corner since they razed the old Meadowlands Racetrack ahead of the 2023 season.
Anything under 20 mph isn’t disruptive, but if the sustained winds flirt with that mark and get up to 30 mph or higher, you’re looking at a difficult day for kicking, especially for the Indianapolis Colts. Indy plays inside a dome and hasn’t been outside since a Week 6 trip to Tennessee.
The New York Jets are still using replacement kicker Spencer Shrader with veteran Greg Zuerlein on the IR. Shrader was 2-for-2 on FGAs in the loss at Arizona last week, scoring the only points for New York.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears weather
It may not be as strong as last week’s breezes, but Soldier Field will have sustained winds of 12 mph spiking to 22 mph gusts, moving SW from corner to corner on Sunday afternoon.
Again, anything above 20 mph can be tricky for kickers, especially from longer distances. The Over/Under opened at 44.5 points but has been hacked down to as low as 40.5 O/U.
The Chicago Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week, putting the playbook in the hands of passing game coordinator Thomas Brown going forward. Can that shake-up wake up a talented but underperforming Chicago attack?
Chicago kicker Cairo Santos is 12-for-14 on FGAs, including a 6-for-7 count on kicks of 50-plus yards. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers have been happy since adding kicker Brandon McManus in Week 7. All he’s done is go 6-for-7 on FGAs, including hitting two game-winning field goals.
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins weather
The forecast for Miami Gardens calls for sustained winds of 13 mph with gusts up to 26 mph, moving ESE from corner to corner at Hard Rock Stadium. On top of that, it will “feel like” 88 degrees under the South Beach sun.
The total hit the board at 45.5 points and has slimmed to 44.5 O/U.
The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off the bye and playing under promoted offensive coordinator Scott Turner after gutting the offensive coaches, including former OC Luke Getsy. The Raiders are also going with journeyman QB Gardiner Minshew under center in Week 11. That could mean a busy day for kicker Daniel Carlson if Vegas struggles to find the end zone. He’s 16-for-18 on FGAs this season, including 6-for-6 in outdoor venues.
Miami Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders has been solid the past few games, going a perfect 7-for-7 on FGAs in the last three outings after struggling with a 10-for-14 start to the season.
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots weather
This appears to be the most impactful weather game of Week 11, with some forecasts for Foxborough calling for sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts getting up to 32 mph, blowing NNW from end to end at Gillette Stadium.
This Over/Under opened at 44.5 and is down to 43.5 O/U.
The Los Angeles Rams have played two outdoor games this season, most recently stealing a win at Seattle in Week 9. The Rams do get an early wake-up call for the 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) and are on a short week after losing on Monday night.
Their kicker Joshua Karty is 16-for-18 on FGAs with a 6-for-7 mark outdoors, while QB Matthew Stafford does see his career QB rating dip in outdoor games (87.5) but is accustomed to the November winds after playing in the NFC North most of his career.
New England Patriots kicker Joey Slye is 16-for-19 on FGAs this season and went a perfect 4-for-4 in the swirling winds of Solider Field last Sunday.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
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