What do games with quarterback matchups of Bailey Zappe vs. Mitch Trubisky, Gardner Minshew vs. Jake Browning, Baker Mayfield vs. Desmond Ridder, and Jordan Love vs. Tommy DeVito all have in common? They all went Over in Week 14! While we’re at it, Zach Wilson led the Jets to 30 points against the Texans, resulting in that game going Over its total, while Joe Flacco led a similar charge in Cleveland resulting in their matchup with the Jaguars going Over the NFL odds total by 20 points!
Will Levis also dropped 28 on the Dolphins resulting in that game going Over, so anyone complaining about all the backups in 2023 needs to chill, because the backups were balling for the most part in Week 14. It helps that some of these games had incredibly low totals, though. Perhaps we’ve seen too much of an adjustment as four of the five totals in the 30s ended up going Over last week.
In other totals-related betting news, the primetime Under NFL betting trend that dominated the first three months of the season is starting to turn as the Over has hit in six of the seven primetime games over the past two weeks.
After Unders were hitting above the 60% mark for most of the season, that number has dipped to 56.5%. This week features eight (!!!) games with totals below 40, so the door appears open for Overs to continue to dominate during the stretch run of the season… even if a lot of teams are being quarterbacked by guys most casual fans have never even heard of.
So before you go making your Week 15 NFL picks, let's break down some trends worth noting.
Best NFL Week 15 betting trends
Chargers vs Raiders
The trend: The Raiders have gone Under their team total in 11 of 13 games this season
Their team total for this week's TNF game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers is at 17.5. This seems low, but they've stayed under that mark in 10 of 13 games, and in six of seven Aidan O'Connell starts. It’s worth noting that the Chargers' defense has looked great vs some bad offenses lately, as they shut out the Patriots, held the Jets to six points, and allowed just 13 points vs Tyson Bagent and the Bears.
See all Chargers vs Raiders trends for Week 15.
Vikings vs Bengals
The trend: The Vikings are 12-0-1 to the first quarter Under
It’s the trend that just won’t die! After combining for zero points with the Raiders in the first quarter of last week’s game, the Minnesota Vikings’ first quarters are now averaging just 4.8 combined points. The first quarter total for this matchup is 7.5 with the Under juiced as high as -166 at one book!
See all Vikings vs Bengals trends for Week 15.
Steelers vs Colts
The trend: The Colts have gone Over their team total in all six of their home games
The Indianapolis Colts are averaging 26.5 points per game at home this season which includes scoring 27 or more in three straight. Their team total for this game is set at a modest 22.5 points which is a mark they’ve topped in six of their last seven games, regardless of location.
See all Steelers vs Colts trends for Week 15.
Broncos vs Lions
The trend: The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss
I’ll go back to the well on this one after it hit in New Orleans two weeks ago. Four of the wins within this trend came by double-digits while three of the games saw them score 33 or more points, so don’t be surprised if they bounce back in impressive fashion. They’re favored by five points in this game.
See all Broncos vs Lions trends for Week 15.
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Texans vs Titans
The trend: The Titans are 3-14 on the second-half moneyline in their last 17 games
With the status of CJ Stroud up in the air due to a concussion, the Tennessee Titans are in a rare spot as a favorite, but aside from that epic comeback vs. the Dolphins, this team hasn’t been a strong finisher. If you’re interested in taking a shot on the Houston Texans, they can be had on the second-half moneyline at +108.
See all Texans vs Titans trends for Week 15.
Bears vs Browns
The trend: The Browns are 3-10-1 ATS after a win since the start of last season
Consistency has been a problem for the Cleveland Browns. I’m guessing a revolving door at the quarterback position has something to do with that. They’ve gone 2-4-1 ATS in this spot this season and are favored by 3.5 over the Chicago Bears who’ve won three of their last four games.
See all Bears vs Browns trends for Week 15.
Falcons vs Panthers
The trend: Atlanta has gone Under in eight of its last 10 road games, Carolina has gone Under in eight of its last 10 home games
We might have a match made in Under Heaven here. The home/away scoring splits certainly support a low-scoring game as the Carolina Panthers are averaging just 13.6 points per game at home, while the Atlanta Falcons are averaging 14.7 points per game on the road. The total for this game is 35 points.
See all Falcons vs Panthers trends for Week 15.
Buccaneers vs Packers
The trend: The Buccaneers are 1-14 SU in their last 15 regular season games in Green Bay
This has almost been an automatic loss for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers whenever they visit the Green Bay Packers in the regular season. This trend goes back to 1990, and of course, teams of the past have absolutely nothing to do with the current version of these teams, but it’s still a fun historical trend and it’ll be interesting to see if it continues on Sunday with the Packers favored by three.
See all Buccaneers vs Packers trends for Week 15.
Chiefs vs Patriots
The trend: These teams have combined to go Under the second-half total in 22 of 26 games
What a weird season it’s been for these two teams with low-scoring second halves being one thing they have in common. They’re tied for last in second-half scoring with each averaging just six second-half points per game, while their defenses rank in the top eight in second-half points allowed with 8.5 for the Kansas City Chiefs and 8.8 for the New England Patriots. The second-half total for this game is 17.5.
See all Chiefs vs Patriots trends for Week 15.
Giants vs Saints
The trend: The Saints are 2-8-1 ATS as a favorite this season
I was shocked to see that the New Orleans Saints have been a favorite 11 times this season. Quite simply, this team can’t be trusted. The New York Giants, meanwhile, are starting to look like last season’s team. They’ve been an outright winner in three straight as an underdog and can be had as a six-point underdog in this game.
See all Giants vs Saints trends for Week 15.
Jets vs Dolphins
The trend: The Jets have scored 13 points or fewer in four of five road games
Fresh off dropping 30 points on the Texans, should we be looking to fade the New York Jets’ team total of 14.5 vs the Miami Dolphins? If their scoring patterns on the road are any indication, probably. The one road game where they scored more than 13 points was in Denver where they had a defensive TD, a safety, five field goals, and just one offensive TD. On Black Friday, the Dolphins held the Jets’ offense to one TD and 159 total yards.
See all Jets vs Dolphins trends for Week 15.
Commanders vs Rams
The trend: The Rams’ opponent has scored first in all six of their home games
A bit of an unusual one here, but maybe something for us to take advantage of as the Washington Commanders are available at +126 to score the first points. Washington has scored first in four of their seven road games and you’d think they’d be prepared to start strong after their bye… but it is the Commanders, who are an embarrassment, so who knows.
See all Commanders vs Rams trends for Week 15.
49ers vs Cardinals
The trend: The Over is 6-0 in Arizona this season
We’re seeing a lot of scoring in Arizona Cardinals home games this season, particularly from the visitors as the Cardinals rank 30th in points allowed at home. Four visitors have surpassed 30 points scored in Arizona and the 49ers, who’ve scored 30 or more eight times, should add to that pattern. This game has a total of 48 points.
See all 49ers vs Cardinals trends for Week 15.
Cowboys vs Bills
The trend: The Cowboys are 11-2 to the first half Over
Dallas Cowboys games start fast as their first halves average 29.4 points. They do most of the heavy lifting, as they average a league-high 19.8 first-half points, but the Buffalo Bills aren’t too shabby, as they rank eighth in first-half scoring at 13.1. This game has a first-half total of 23.5.
See all Cowboys vs Bills trends for Week 15.
Ravens vs Jaguars
The trend: The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in games after games that they didn’t cover in
Short trend here, but as I often say, trends need to start somewhere! They covered these spreads in the game after not covering by a very wide margin, covering by double-digits in three of the four games. They’re favored by 3.5 in this game and are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in the first half on the road this season.
See all Ravens vs Jaguars trends for Week 15.
Eagles vs Seahawks
The trend: The Eagles' fourth quarter Under record on the road + the Seahawks' fourth quarter Under record at home is 10-3
Some fun with home/away splits here as each team sees low scoring to close out games. The Seattle Seahawks have gone Under the fourth quarter total in 13 of their last 18 games regardless of the location. This game has a fourth-quarter total of 13.5.
See all Eagles vs Seahawks trends for Week 15.
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